UP elections 2012: Ajit facing stiff challenge from BSP, SP on home turf

BARAUT (Baghpat): "Pehle the hum neem-julaha, phir bane darzi; khich-khich ke baney Syed, aage maa ki marzi," says Devraj Chauhan, an elderly Jat, as he takes another drag on his hookah lying outside his home near Jain College at Baraut. "A little boy once asked his headmaster to change his caste and it was done promptly. But when he asked for the same thing again, the headmaster sought an explanation and that is how the boy answered,'' he adds.

Chauhan is talking about RLD leader Ajit Singh who lords it over the Jat heartland of Baghpat. Chauhan is explaining how slippery, like the little boy, Singh has been as a political ally and how his sudden decision to join hands with Congress last year has only added to his "reputation".

According to Chauhan, while Singh is masquerading as Congress's spin doctor who can help swing its fortunes in western UP, the Jat chieftain is facing a stiff challenge from BSP and SP in all three seats here - Baghgpat, Chapprauli and Baraut.

Chapprauli, he says, with over 1 lakh Jat voters is the only safe seat for Singh because of emotional reasons; Singh's father Chaudhary Charan Singh was MLA here and all Jats unite here for Singh at the last minute before voting.

It's not the same at Baraut and Baghpat. The BSP candidate is popular among all non-Jat voters including Dalits and Brahmins but the RLD here is in a tough spot also because a powerful local Jat and SP candidate, Ajay Kumar, is threatening to corner a substantial chunk of Jat votes. A former RLD leader, Kumar joined SP after he was denied ticket by Singh.

Similarly, in Baghpat, SP's Jat candidate, a local strongman, has got enough support from his castemen to give sleepless nights to the RLD candidate, a Muslim. If the SP candidate gets even 30% of Jat votes, BSP's Hemlata Chaudhary, who has support from all non-Jat voters, will romp home.

Singh's decision to embrace Congress and become civil aviation minister is also drawing flak. "For a man who claims to be a leader of farmers, it is ironical that he opted to become civil aviation minister. The elections this time are different because many even in the Jat community, especially youths, are not going to vote for RLD,'' says Pratap Singh, the district chief of Bhartiya Kisan Union and also chairman of Baghpat sugar mill.

The three constituencies together have about 2.5 lakh Jat voters (33%) and Muslims about 1.75 lakh. Singh's attempt to cobble together a Jat-Muslim alliance with Congress is under strain because while Congress has agreed to give Muslims 4.5% reservation under OBC quota, no such promise has been made to Jats who have been demanding reservation for long.

Singh's campaign managers are insisting that Singh entered into an alliance with Congress only after getting assurance from Congress top leadership that Jats would also be accommodated.