United opposition devised 3-pronged strategy to defeat BJP in Uttar Pradesh

The Kairana defeat has shown unprecedented coordination within the Opposition which adopted three strategies to outfox BJP.

While RLD’s Jayant Chaudhary built the narrative that voters should not allow the ‘party of Jats’ to sink into political oblivion, SP’s Akhilesh Yadav avoided campaigning to prevent Jats from remembering their grouse against his administration during the 2013 riots.

However, SP cadre built the narrative among Muslims that this was their chance to elect UP’s first Muslim MP to the current Lok Sabha. The Opposition also highlighted the government’s failure to clear the dues of sugarcane farmers. The PM and CM promising to clear the dues fell short of convincing voters.


Kairana defeat is the third Lok Sabha bypoll loss under chief minister Yogi Adityanath. The only byelection BJP has won post-2017 is in Sikandara, before the Opposition firmed up an alliance.

Kairana and Noorpur bypolls saw RLD and Congress joining SP and BSP ranks to defeat BJP. The party which was eyeing the seven remaining seats, especially Rae Bareli, Amethi and Azamgarh, suddenly finds its fort under siege ahead of the 2019 polls.

The bypoll losses have hurt BJP as the opposition unity has led to consolidation of Dalit, Jat and Muslim votes. If the social combination remains intact, BJP will not be able to repeat its 2014 and 2017 formula of winning by uniting non-Yadav OBCs votes.

BJP’s hopes for 2019 rests on its calculation that the Opposition alliance will fall through during seat-sharing talks and due to inherent differences among the cadres. However, if the Opposition could reach an informal understanding — 8-10 seats for Congress, 2-3 seats for RLD, 30-32 seats for SP and 35-38 BSP — it would be a challenge BJP would find difficult to beat.

Polarisation which worked for BJP last time may not work in the face of a rainbow-caste alliance as seen in Kairana. PM Modi had repeatedly said that UP was responsible for his party securing a majority in 2014.