Uncertainty adds to monsoon worries
There is a lingering uncertainty about the monsoon. Even though aggregate rainfall has been better in the current week than the previous, it is lower than last year’s.
By Shivom Chakravarti, TNN |
There is a lingering uncertainty about the monsoon. Even though aggregate rainfall has been better in the current week than the previous, it is lower than last year’s.
However, the recent RBI monetary policy has indicates that even if sporadic rains affect the kharif crop production, it may not end up dampening real GDP growth. The declining contribution of agriculture in total GDP growth, and the falling share of kharif output in total crop production may have diluted the importance of monsoons in India.
For instance, in FY06 the agricultural sector contributed only 0.8% of the 8.4% growth. The increasing share of rabi crops has lessened the importance of monsoons. But, poor monsoons can adversely affect farmers’ income and thereby lower consumption levels in the economy.
Even though the south-west monsoon winds found its way to several parts of Rajasthan, overall rainfall was well below the expectation. The actual amount of rainfall for the week ending 26 July stood at 59.4 mm, which is 13% below expectation. Some of the crops like jowar, maize, bajra and cotton that are sown extensively in Rajasthan could benefit.
For the week in review only a few areas like Gujarat, eastern Rajasthan, western Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, gangetic West Bengal, and Punjab saw excess or heavy downpour. Some states like Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, and eastern Madhya Pradesh that saw light spells of heavy rainfall. Moreover, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry saw scanty rainfall. Sugercane and Kharif oil seeds could be the worst hit.
ADVERTISEMENT
Most other states saw deficient rainfall. There is a bit of good news though. Over the last two days a low-pressure pocket is building up over the north-western region of Bay of Bengal. This could bring more rain in Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.
Download
The Economic Times Business News App for the Latest News in Business, Sensex, Stock Market Updates & More.
The Economic Times Business News App for the Latest News in Business, Sensex, Stock Market Updates & More.
Download
The Economic Times News App for Quarterly Results, Latest News in ITR, Business, Share Market, Live Sensex News & More.
The Economic Times News App for Quarterly Results, Latest News in ITR, Business, Share Market, Live Sensex News & More.
ADVERTISEMENT
