This winter will not be severe, says MoES secretary

Winter in India is likely to be milder this year with less chances of severe cold conditions, according to M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.

"El Nino has still not gone. Its impact will be felt on the temperatures," said Rajeevan. "This year's winter season will not be that severe. Overall, the number of cold spells are getting reduced."

The India Meteorological Department, which works under the earth sciences ministry, is soon expected to come out with its seasonal forecast for the winter season.


The high temperatures and heat waves of the current year are expected to have a role in reducing the winter chill. "Normally, a year after the El Nino event becomes one of hotter temperatures. The hottest year of 2016 was preceded by one of the strongest El Nino events of 2015," said Rajeevan.

The ministry is also working on providing impact-based forecast, and not just weather forecast, in order to enable administrators to improve preparedness for impending extreme weather events. "We had given a forecast of heavy rainfall during the Kedarnath heavy rainfall event in Uttarakhand. We did not tell what it will cause. The government noticed it and kept quiet," said Rajeevan, adding that this is why the ministry is working on flood warning systems for Chennai, which is already operational. Those for Mumbai, Bengaluru and Kolkata are in the pipeline.

POLICY FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY
The ministry is drafting a policy for determining the fee for weather forecasts provided to the wind and solar energy industry. "The companies that produced wind and solar energy have to tell the government how much assured energy they will produce during next 24 hours and supply to the grid. Falling short of their assurance, they have to pay a fine," said Rajeevan.

Some MoES institutes are already providing these forecasts. "Now, we are drafting a policy, which is expected to be ready after a month, on how much to charge for such forecasts," he said. These will be the first products from IMD to be developed for commercial use.