There is no certainty Vijay Mallya will be extradited after his arrest

NEW DELHI: Absconding Indian liquor baron Vijay Mallya who has been accused of big financial irregularities has been arrested in London by the police. He will appear in a local court now.

After he was booked in India, Mallya had escaped to London in March last year. He is wanted in several cases of financial irregularities amounting to Rs 9,000 crore.

The UK had refused to deport Mallya last year. A few weeks ago, India had handed over the request for Mallya's extradition to the UK High Commission. The British government had certified India's request and sent it to a district judge for further action.

The extradition request was made after Mallya didn't respond to requests by the CBI and the ED to join investigations over the last 11 months.

In a series of tweets in January, Mallya complained of a "witch hunt" against him. "In our country, I assumed that innocence prevails till proven guilty. Media have convicted me guilty without trial with widespread influence," he further said.

What are the chances of Mallya's extradition? It seems they are slim if you go by the reasons listed below:

Only a diplomatic game
It was clear from MEA spokesperson Vikas Swarup's statement last month that there could be no guarantee of Mallya's extradition. Swarup had asserted that India had a "legitimate" case against Mallya and if an extradition request was honoured, it would show the UK's "sensitivity towards our concerns". India has said that the case is a test of India-UK ties. So, Mallya's extradition is just a diplomatic game and not a rule-bound process.

The extradition requests already pending with the UK
Ten requests by India for extradition of fugitive criminals including Vijay Mallya are pending with the UK. Last month, in a written reply in Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for External Affairs VK Singh said only one fugitive criminal Samirbhai Vinubhai Patel had been extradited from the UK in the last five years.

The extradition requests rejected by the UK
In the past, the UK has rejected several extradition requests made by India. The minister said extradition requests for criminal fugitives Raymond Varley, Ravi Shankaran, Velu Boopalan, Ajay Prasad Khaitan, Virendra Kumar Rastogi and Anand Kumar Jain had been rejected by the UK government.

Why the UK might not extradite Mallya?
1. For extradition, the UK has placed India in Category 2 countries for which the process is arduous and long. In Category 1 are the US and European countries which get preference.

2. If the UK extradites Mallya, it will have to move on other pending extradition requests made by India.

3. Mallya can claim to be a victim of political vendetta and use that ground to block his extradition. He can easily get bail after his arrest today. He can later apply for a British passport by making financial investment there.