The national plan of AAP: How many seats will it contest?

How many seats will the Aam Aadmi Party contest in the 2014 national elections? While the party has not put out an official number, statements from various leaders peg it anywhere between 250 and 400 seats, out of 543.

One possible indicator of how many seats, and which ones, can be had from a February 8 press release from the party that said it was closing its application window for 238 seats across the country because of an “overwhelming volume of nominations received from prospective candidates”. If that list is anything to go by, it throws up some interesting cues on the party’s possible electoral strategy and, depending on its success, the national picture.

Attack the Hindi Heartland

In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, it has closed applications in 103 of 120 seats. These two states account for 22 per cent of Lok Sabha seats and are likely to see multi-cornered contests. In an interview in January to ET, AAP leader Yogendra Yadav had said that the party had put its organisation structure in place in UP nearly a year ago.

Ride the Delhi Wave

AAP’s initial appeal came from the urban populace, which is also cited as a factor for its Delhi success. That urban resonance could go beyond Delhi. In Mumbai, it has closed nominations in all six seats. In Bangalore, it has closed nominations in three of the four seats (the exception being the Rural Bangalore Constituency). Nominations are also closed for all seats in Delhi, where it made a stunning debut in 2013, and for all 10 seats in adjoining Haryana (which will also see state elections this October) and 10 of the 13 seats in Punjab.

Consolidate the Urban Vote

AAP’s initial appeal came from the urban populace, which is also cited as a factor for its Delhi success. That urban resonance could go beyond Delhi. In Mumbai, it has closed nominations in all six seats. In Bangalore, it has closed nominations in three of the four seats (the exception being the Rural Bangalore Constituency).

Forget the South and East

In the four Southern states, the response has been poor: just 18 from the possible 129 seats. The response has also been poor in the east, besides Bihar. It’s drawn a blank in West Bengal, a big state, as well as all of north-east.