The curious case of few BJP wins in high turnout seats

NEW DELHI: Of the 100 seats with the highest voter turnouts in the 2009 general election, BJP won just one. Even that, Darjeeling, was really gifted to it by the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha ( GJM). The Congress won 37 of the top 100. At the other end of the turnout spectrum, the BJP won 35 of 100 seats with the lowest turnouts, while Congress won 29. This in an election in which Congress won 206 seats, BJP 116.

How significant is this statistical nugget? Not very, really. The explanation is simple. States where the top 100 seats (turnout) were, are Bengal (37), Andhra (23), Tamil Nadu (20), Kerala (9), Tripura (2), Haryana (2) and one each in Punjab, Assam, Manipur, Sikkim, Nagaland, Puducherry and Lakshadweep. Barring Darjeeling, only in Punjab and Assam did BJP win seats. Those few weren't in the top 100. The bottom 100 in terms of turnout were in UP (30), Bihar (22), Maharashtra (14), Gujarat (10), MP (8), Rajasthan (8), J&K (4), Jharkhand (2) and Karnataka (2).

It's not difficult to see why BJP figured more prominently here than among the top 100 or why Congress had fewer seats. The 2009 polls were not atypical. States with traditionally high turnouts stuck to the trend. Those which polled 70% or more were Kerala, Andhra, TN, Bengal, Tripura, Nagaland, Sikkim and Manipur, other than some UTs. BJP has never won a LS seat in Kerala, Sikkim, Tripura and Nagaland. States like Bengal, TN and Andhra have not voted the saffron party much either.

Five states had turnouts of below 50% — J&K, Bihar, UP, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Maharashtra, MP and Jharkhand had turnouts in the low fifties. All these are states where BJP has had a presence, even if in J&K it's restricted to Jammu region.

It's a curious coincidence between high polling states and BJP's weakness, and between low-polling states and its presence.