Telangana bill proves Congress' saviour in Andhra Pradesh

HYDERABAD: With the passage of the Telangana bill in LS, Congress has saved itself from certain extinction in AP. Assuming that the bill will pass muster in RS and receive presidential assent, in the next LS elections, Congress with TRS is likely to bag the lion’s share of the region’s 17 LS seats.

In residuary AP, Congress can’t be expected to get a single of the 23 LS berths. This is as compared to the 33 seats it won in AP in 2009 and 29 in 2004.

In Seemandhra, a realignment of the party’s caste composition is likely. Now controlled by Reddys with Kapus and Dalits as junior partners, Kapus are likely to take over the party. Reddys and Dalits will make a beeline for YSR Congress, but TDP will entice some Kapus. In the immediate future, YSR Congress and TDP will slug out in Seemandhra.

Congress will be relieved if TRS merges with it. In the forthcoming elections, the two are expected to have an agreement. The Telangana bill could never have been passed in LS without BJP’s support. The saffron party has had Telangana on its agenda for 40 years — even in its Jana Sangh avatar.

Recently, BJP had second thoughts on its support. This was under Chandrababu Naidu’s influence and lobbying by Seemandhra business barons with Narendra Modi. But the RSS diktat from Nagpur was clear: Support Telangana.
BJP is now likely to claim credit. Analysts say the benefit may not immediately accrue to BJP. But soon, it will emerge as a force in the region . In Seemandhra, BJP feels TDP may have no option but to support them nationally . But the latest indication is that TDP may be for a third front in New Delhi.

At a deeper level, politics will be transformed in the two regions by broad-basing democracy. Many AP MPs are businessmen and have used their position to further business interests. This lobby has been leading the scuttle-Telangana move. Now these businessmen — like Lagadapati Rajagopal — are expected to get out of business (read politics).