Tamil Nadu polls: Dramatic realignments on cards as DMK, AIADMK try to find key partners

NEW DELHI: There are clear indications that Tamil Nadu would see a dramatic realignment of parties for the assembly elections in April-May, even as arch rivals AIADMK and DMK try to reinforce their respective positions with new key partners.

With both AIADMK and DMK capable of netting around 25 per cent to 30 per cent votes on the strength of their respective cadre base, the fight will be to mop up additional friends who could reinforce the battle for supremacy between the arch-rivals.

This round of election has additional significance, given that the nonagenarian Karunanidhi will be leading the fight for one last time before handing over the leadership to his son Stalin. On the other side, there are reports that Jayalalithaa too is not in the pink of health.

Though the polls would be a fight mainly between the two Dravidian parties, it could see the BJP and the Congress’ giving up their plans to create an ‘independent electoral space’. The Congress, battling for survival in the land of Kamraj, after the party’s disastrous solo run in the last LS polls, will have no major options other than accepting Karunandihi’s alliance invitation. The main concern of many state Congress leaders would be about wangling a presentable number of seats from DMK to justify the alliance, even though the DMK chief is known to bargain hard. The fact the GK Vasan has already walked out of the Congress means depletion in the already small vote base of the Congress and its capacity to bargain.

The prospects of DMK and Congress coming together could prompt Jayalaithaa to align with GK Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress. BJP’s poor show in the last LS polls, could see DMDK’s Vijayakanth reconsidering his alliance with the saffron party. While DMK is making efforts to woo Vijayakath to make it a credible DMK-Congress-DMDK alliance, BJP is expected to make a last-ditch effort to hold on to Vijayakanth, failing which it may woo S Ramdoss’ PMK. There are also question marks on whether the Left-Vaiko-Dalit Panthers Party Front will remain united amid the hectic season of political realignments.