Tamil Nadu floor test explained: 10 key points

Imprisoned AIADMK general secretary VK Sasikala’s supporters are confident that the floor test to be held when the Tamil Nadu assembly convenes today will be a breeze for the newly inducted Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami. What does this floor test mean and can Sasikala's choice pull this one off?

Here's the big Tamil Nadu test explained in 10 points

1. The Tamil Nadu legislature currently has 233 members or votes. Before former chief minister Jayalalithaa passed away, the House had 234 votes, but her seat is now vacant.

2. Chief Minister EK Palaniswami - of the Sasikala camp - needs half of the 233 members' votes, that is, he needs 117 votes to win the trust motion.

3. Palaniswami claims he has the support of 124 Tamil Nadu lawmakers.

4. That 124 number doesn't include all AIADMK MLAs. There are 11 AIADMK rebels who have said they will vote against Palaniswami. They support caretaker chief minister O Panneerselvam. The 11 number is hearsay.

5. A total of 98 MLAs (89 from the DMK alone) are in the opposition. They've said they will not vote for Palaniswami.

6. So, including the 11 AIADMK rebel MLAs, the total number of those who will vote against Palaniswami is 109. (Remember, the 11 number is hearsay.)

7. If Palaniswami gets 117 votes, he will sail through to remain Tamil Nadu chief minister, but his apple cart has every chance of being upset and in many ways.

8. If eight more AIADMK members rebel (if we consider there are already 11 rebels), it's likely the end for Palaniswami.


9. On the flip side, if all the opposition lawmakers are not present in the House, Palaniswami's position will be consolidated. That's because the number of those voting against him will drop.

10. The most crucial role today is that of the P Dhanapal, Speaker of the Tamil Nadu legislature. The main decision the Speaker has to make is whether the trust vote will be by secret ballot or by a voice vote. The AIADMK faction that opposes Palaniswami wants a secret ballot, as it believes it takes the pressure of those party MLAs who want to vote against Palaniswami but might be too afraid to do so in a voice vote.