Stormy petrel ahead of old warhorse

KOLKATA: If one Lok Sabha seat tops CPM���s priority list, it���s Kolkata South. This is the seat from where Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee is seeking re-election to the Lok Sabha. And this time with support from the Congress.

The Congress high command, by utilising Mamata���s popularity and organisational strength, wants to curb CPM���s growing importance in national politics and the Marxists��� capacity to have any effective influence on any coalition government in Delhi after the polls.

Since West Bengal has provided the CPM maximum strength to dominate the Congress-led government in Delhi after the 2004 parliamentary elections, the Congress high command, this time, has identified West Bengal as a major area of operation and is trying hard to reduce CPM���s strength.

The CPM had earned the Congress��� wrath after Prakash Karat and others withdrew support to the Manmohan Singh government and tried to pull it down. The Congress high command, it seems, wants to teach CPM a lesson on their home turf and that is why the Congress high command is in a league with Mamata Banerjee.

Just for this reason, CPM too, has taken all possible measures to make things tougher for Mamata. In 2004, old warhorse Rabin Deb, who is contesting from Kolkata South again, had given the Trinamool supremo a very tough fight.

Mamata had won the seat by 98,429 votes and Deb had reduced her victory margin by more than 80,000 votes.
Delimitation of Assembly and Lok Sabha seats is likely to play a crucial role as the three Assembly segments of Kasba, Kolkata Port and Bhabanipur have been created and inducted into Mamata���s constituency. Kasba is a CPM stronghold. In Kolkata Port, the Congress has strong influence and Mamata is likely to get Congress support from there.

Delimitation has taken Chowringhee, Alipore and Tollygunge Assembly seats out of the Kolkata South seat. Mamata���s party had won al these seats in the 2006 Assembly elections. Naturally, Mamata will not get the victory margins this time from these three seats.

The Kolkata South seat has seven Assembly segments of Kasba, Behala East, Behala West, Kolkata Port, Bhabanipur, Rashbehari and Ballygunge. Of these, Mamata���s organisational strength could not be judged in Kasba, Kolkata Port and Bhabanipur as these are new Assembly seats.

Among the other four, Trinamool had won Behala West, Rashbehari and Ballygunge in the 2006 Assembly elections. Behala East assembly seat was won by the CPM. It can be said it���s still ���Advantage Mamata��� as of the seven assembly seats under her constituency, her party had won three seats in 2006 while her rival had won only one.

The CPM is also aware of the re-arrangement of assembly segments. Therefore, it is leaving no stone unturned to make things tougher for Mamata in her backyard. Half a dozen CPM politburo members, like Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, Nirupam Sen had addressed a number of campaign rallies here.

In no other parliamentary constituency in the state, has the CPM deployed so many party heavyweights for campaigning. In 2004, the Congress had fielded Nafisa Ali against Mamata in Kolkata South and Ali had got 60,377 votes. This time, Congress is fighting the Marxists jointly with the Trinamool and Mamata is likely to get the majority of the 60,377 votes the Congress had got in 2004.

Except Ballygunge, Rabin Deb had lost to Mamata in all Assembly segments in 2004. Deb had defeated Mamata by 398 votes in Ballygunge. But after 2004 elections, West Bengal had Assembly elections in 2006 when CPM lost Ballygunge to the Trinamool. Naturally, Deb might find it difficult to defeat Mamata in Ballygunge as well.

The new Assembly segment of Bhabanipur is likely to favour Mamata as the area is known to be a Trinamool Congress pocket. In Kolkata Port, Mamata will have to take support of the Congress as the new Assembly constituency has some powerful Congress leaders like Ram Pyare Ram.

A number of municipal wards under the Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC), which were won by the CPM in 2005 KMC elections, have been inducted into Mamata���s parliamentary seat. If voting pattern in these KMC wards remains unchanged on May 13 when Kolkata South go to polls, Mamata might lose some votes.

Favourite: Mamata Banerjee