States saw record voter turnout in years of regime change

The states that are having elections now have registered their highest voter turnouts when the mandate was decisive, effected regime changes, and female voters had a clear role to play, shows a study of the Election Commission’s voter turnout data.

The first rush of the current election season has already indicated a high voter turnout: 80% in West Bengal and 72% in Assam in the Phase 1 held on Saturday.

Data of two decades spell some omens.


Factor this, between 1991 and 2021, the highest voter turnout in West Bengal was recorded in the 2011 assembly elections when the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress felled the formidable Left government. The state then posted an 84.33% voter turnout, up from 81.9% in the previous election.

Banerjee’s rise to the chief minister's office also came with female voters turning up in higher numbers than usual. For the first time since 1991, more women voted than men in 2011 -- 84.45% vs 84.22%. In all previous elections since 1991, the number for women was 2-5 percentage points lower than the men.

Neighbouring Assam’s voter turnout signalled the big shift loud and clear.

From around 75% since 2001, the north-eastern state voted emphatically with an 84.4% turnout in 2016, when the BJP captured power from the Congress.

Here too, female voters were a slight step ahead with an 84.67% turnout, compared with 84.33% for men. Again, the gap was 2-5 percentage points between women and men in the state in every election before 2016.

A shift down South also points to the same trend.

From 59% in 2001, voter turnout in Tamil Nadu hit 78% in 2011, when the DMK was voted out amid the Spectrum scandal.

Women were key and rooted more strongly than ever for J Jayalalithaa with a 78.5% turn out against 77.5% for men. In the process, they also overturned the trend of being 4-5 percentage points behind the men since 1991 in casting their vote.

Kerala hit a high at 77.10% turnout as the Left Democratic Front ousted the Congress-led UDF in 2016. It had voted at 74.9% in the previous election.

Women were at the forefront here too with a 78.14% turnout recorded in 2016 -- their highest in a decade plus -- while male voters were at 75.9%.