Skymet’s rainfall prediction way off mark: Centre

NEW DELHI: The minister of state for science and technology and earth sciences YS Chowdary said the monsoon forecast issued by a private agency was off the mark, appearing to allude to Noida-based Skymet Weather Services.

In a written reply to the Rajya Sabha on Thursday, the minister said the government was aware that a private agency has predicted seasonal rainfall of 102 per cent of the average for July, whereas the India Meteorological Department has forecast monsoon rainfall of 88 per cent of average.

"The actual rainfall in July was 84 per cent of average, which is well within the forecast range issued by IMD model and far off the target of the forecast issued by private agency," said Chowdary.

Rainfall in July, which Skymet had said would be 4 per cent above normal, was 17 per cent below average. Skymet provides weather information to governments, companies, commodity markets, international organisations and banks. In 2014, it raised $4.5 million from a consortium of investors led by Asia Pacific, an investment arm of the UK’s Daily Mail Group.

The cumulative rainfall between June 1 and August 7 was 93 per cent of average, the minister said. "As about two more months are left for the present (2015) monsoon season (June to September) to complete, it will be early to say which forecast is accurate," he said.

The rainfall during the second half of the monsoon likely to be 84 per cent of average, with a model error of eight percentage points.

The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 per cent of average, with an error of nine percentage points, as was forecast in June, he said.