Skymet warns of spotty rains in North East & peninsular India

NEW DELHI: Peninsular and majority of northeast India are at a higher risk of facing deficient rains in the upcoming monsoon season, even though countrywide rainfall will be in the normal range at 100% of the average, private forecaster Skymet has said.

Only central India is likely to receive excess rainfall at 108% of average, while northwest India is expected to receive 99% of the average rainfall, it said. Peninsular India will receive 97% rainfall, while east and northeast India remain at the highest risk of receiving deficient rains at 95% of average, Skymet said.

“East India, especially Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal are most likely to see normal monsoon rains throughout the season,” the forecast added.


Meanwhile, July and August may see poor rainfall in the monsoon season, which lasts between June and September. In fact, rainfall in August will be poorer than July, it said.

Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet said, “Devolving La Niña and gradual warming of Pacific is ruling out the possibility of excess rains.”

The private forecaster added that there is over 60% chance of neutral, 24% chance of La Niña and 14% chance of El Niño coming into existence.

La Nina, associated with the cooling of sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean, adds to the quantum of southwest monsoon in India, but is expected to neutralise by the time monsoon sets in, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) also pointed out in its monsoon forecast on Monday.

According to the national weather office, India will receive normal monsoon rainfall at 97% of long period average of 89 cm, which is the average between 1951and 2000.

Pre-monsoon heat is considered a positive indicator and points towards normal monsoon. Such conditions are presently prevailing across the country, Skymet said.