Shankersinh Vaghela's third front plan in Gujarat likely to split anti-incumbency vote

GANDHINAGAR: Former Congress Chief Minister of Gujarat Shankersinh Vaghela is now looking at a possible third political alternative in Gujarat and has indicated he is not aligning with any party and certainly not planning to fade away from active politics.

A statement issued from his office on Sunday mentions the “pains” of the people including those of the farmers, traders and housewives on account of electricity, GST and rising prices. So far so good.

While there is no reason to question Vaghela’s honourable intentions because the Kshatriya leader understands Gujarat in its myriad layers and his political acumen is unmatched. However, Vaghela more likely than not, is set to end up serving the Modi-Shah juggernaut in the state in an election that would otherwise have been tough for the ruling BJP disposition.

Apart from governance and well-crafted campaign blitzkrieg, BJP in Gujarat has benefitted from the so called third front in earlier elections in a big way. Such formations have always absorbed anti-incumbency and public disaffection towards the saffron party, preventing them to enlarging the principal opposition’s numbers.

It will thus not be out of place to remember the experiment of Patel patriarch Keshubhai Patel, who floated the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) ahead of 2012 general election, only to win two seats in Saurashtra and later merged with the BJP ahead of 2014 general election. GPP in effect chipped into a significant share of votes in 2012, which if it had gone to the Congress could have gotten the party a few more seats.

In Gujarat’s strictly bi-polar polity, historically third front has always been the vote cutter and BJP has skilfully used such INSTANCES to its advantage. It is therefore interesting to hear Hardik Patel, who speaks with equal contempt for both BJP and Congress, admit that “in the battle between the community and BJP, it is the Congress which will benefit without doing a thing.”

His comrade in arms in Saurashtra, Lalit Vasoya, echoes Patel adding that farmers and traders are unhappy across the region and their displeasure will reflect in the ballot count.

In this backdrop, the BJP may find Shankersinh and his endeavour to stay relevant in state polity useful. After all, the Kapadvanj MLA had tendered his resignation from the assembly surrounded by BJP chief minister, deputy chief minister and other senior members of the cabinet.