Semifinal results today to set pace for Lok Sabha 2014 polls

NEW DELHI: Parties prepared their lines on Saturday evening, gaming for a range of score lines ahead of poll results to four important states that can set the tempo for the 2014 Lok Sabha election that is barely four-five months away and boost the hopes of those disenchanted with political parties by establishing the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as an option.

Read as the semifinal before next year's Lok Sabha polls, a strong BJP showing in the assembly polls to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh will boost Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi's candidature for prime ministership.

By the same token, if the Congress falters, the results will be read as a setback for party vice-president Rahul Gandhi.

Success of AAP, as predicted by post-poll surveys, will mark a break from the pattern of failure of earlier initiatives to create alternatives.

A split verdict, however, will give the Congress much-needed oxygen encouraging it to take last ditch political and reform initiatives to regain lost ground, while effectiveness of the Modi factor will be called into question.

There seems to be a consensus on BJP winning Rajasthan and retaining Madhya Pradesh, but opinion is sharply divided on Chhattisgarh - where Congress scents a victory - and Delhi, where a hung assembly is not ruled out.

A 4-0 score in favour of BJP will add significant thrust to Modi's prime ministerial campaign, establishing him as a frontrunner in taking on incumbent UPA-II that will look like a lame duck regime.

A 2-2 result with Chhattisgarh going Congress's way and a hung assembly stymieing government formation in Delhi will put a spoke in BJP's works, While Congress is not billed as a winner in Delhi, and a hung House will stop rival BJP from snatching a prize trophy.

Results will be closely analyzed for the Narendra Modi effect, as saffron victories will add impetus to his campaign for 2014 while setbacks will be read to reinforce the view that his candidature has its limitations in terms of BJP's actual ground presence.

If Congress wins a cliffhanger in Chhattisgarh, the party would have won a substantial consolation prize. It will help Congress argue that BJP hyped the pull of Modi and over pitched its claims about the quality of governance in states ruled by it.

Chhattisgarh with its Maoist problems is an ideological battle ground too as Congress has challenged the Raman Singh government's claims on security and development. Congress has made local corruption a major poll issue too.

Delhi is perhaps the trickiest of the four states with the rookie AAP surprising Congress and BJP with its capacity to pull in votes from all sections of voters ranging from jhuggi dwellers to residents of high-end colonies.