Saffron fades at BMC

MUMBAI: And the BMC goes to... whom? The Congress, the NCP the MNS, or the Sena-BJP combine? Yes the pecking order seems to be changing. With Mumbaikars casting their ballots in relatively large numbers ��� nearly 50% compared to 42% in ���02 ��� political pundits, punters and back-room operators are predicting the emergence of a new power triangle at the BMC, consisting of the Congress, the NCP and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

���If we restrict the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance below the 100-mark, there is every possibility of we three coming together,��� a top-level Congress leader said. Currently, in the 227-member house, the ruling Sena-BJP combine has 140 (104 + 36) corporators, while the Congress-NCP strength is 78 (64+14). According to him, an informal channel has already been opened to explore new equations.

Sources also say that the Sena���s ���winnable��� rebels too are being wooed by the Congress.On the other hand, Sena managers too are chalking out a strategy for a situation where the alliance fails to cross the magic figure of 100. The problem for the saffron alliance is that it is untouchable to many in the fray. There is no likelihood of the NCP or the MNS supporting the saffron combine. It is equally unlikely that the Third Front, a combination of Republican parties, the Janata Dal, and the Samajwadi Party, will back the saffron combine, considering their avowed anti-saffron stand.

Though the saffron alliance is largely tipped to take a thin lead over the Congress, the post-poll combinations do not favour them. There are two scenarios in which the saffron alliance could retain power. One, it should win the simple majority of 114 seats.

The other, it should fall short by only, say, 5 to 10 seats, which will leave it some scope for luring independents or rebels who get elected. Both the possibilities, however, appear bleak for the saffron alliance.
A hung house seems to be a certainty at BMC, with a thin margin separating the Sena-BJP alliance and the Congress. This will put the NCP, the MNS, and the Third Front in the kingmaker���s position. The Congress, even if it emerges a close second to the saffron combine, is better positioned to cobble up a power-sharing arrangement with the NCP and even the MNS.

The city witnessed a brisk polling. According to the state Election Commission, the turnout was in the range of 45% to 50%. The average polling in the other nine cities, which went to polls on Thursday, was a good 55-65%. The polls were by and large peaceful barring a few clashes among rival party workers. The results are expected to be out by Friday afternoon.

Among other cities the turnout was 55% in Pune, Nagpur, and Solapur; 65% in Amravati and Akola; 60% in Nashik, Pimpri-Chinchwad, and Thane, and 50% in Ulhasnagar.