Rains just 2.5 per cent less than normal

The southwest monsoon has made a dramatic turnaround, with total seasonal rainfall rising to the normal range for the first time. The June-September season began on an alarmingly weak note that sparked fears of a drought.

After two weeks of torrential rain, rainfall is just 2.5% short of the normal level, with the deficit narrowing rapidly from about 35% below normal at June-end, when most states were on high alert to combat what seemed an emerging drought.

Rainfall this month has been 39% more than normal, which has helped replenish India’s 103 major reservoirs to 99% of the level at this time last year, and 97% of the 10-year average. Just a week ago, the water level was 74% of last year’s level, which was a cause for concern because these reservoirs store water for drinking, irrigation and power generation after the monsoon.


The progress of the southwest monsoon sets the mood of the rural economy because more than half of India’s farmland depends entirely on rainfall for irrigation. A good monsoon boosts crop output and rural incomes, which in turn increase demand for automobiles, consumer goods, gold and other items in rural India, where two-thirds of Indians live.

The India Meteorology Department (IMD) expects heavy rainfall to continue in many parts of the country.

“Cumulatively, above normal rainfall is likely over Gujarat, Maharashtra, southern parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands,” the weather office said in its forecast for the next seven days.