President election: Congress' hopes rest on Mamata Banerjee; TMC support crucial for victory

NEW DELHI: Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is indispensible to the UPA’s bid to safely negotiate the looming presidential election in June as Trinamool’s 47,890 electoral votes, or 4% of the electoral college, can tilt the balance in almost any political permutation.

But while the Congress needs its moody ally — as also regional biggies like Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party — the threat of an opposition coup looks remote . Only desertions from the UPA and a grand alliance of the NDA, Left and regional parties can pose a threat.

Congress’s task lies in ensuring allies like the Trinamool , and outside supporters like the Samajwadi Party, do not team up to try and force its hand with their nominee. Instead of waiting for an ambush, the Congress may need to present a nominee who passes muster with allies and supporters.

The maths of the electoral college has made Congress’s choices both more difficult and easy. With the Congress commanding 30% of the vote and the UPA 41%, it cannot hope to place a party loyalist in Rashtrapati Bhavan on its own steam as it did in 2007.

Even in 2007, Left’s backing for President Pratibha Patil tilted the scales for her and the picture is much more fragmented now. Number crunching will help the Congress eliminate unviable options and concentrate on “doable” candidates who could emerge as a consensus choice.

NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s call for a “non-political” president would favour someone like vice-president Hamid Ansari. Although a dyed in the wool politician, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee is also a possibility as he can get the NDA’s backing and Mamata Banerjee could find it hard to oppose the Bengal stalwart.

While the Congress is yet to take a call, the composition of the electoral college shows the UPA and supporting parties like the SP, BSP, Lalu Prasad’s RJD, H D Deve Gowda’s JD(S) and independents add up to a comfortable 53% of the votes. The UPA plus SP, BSP vote is 51%.

Trinamool’s votes make up 4% of the electoral college and without Banerjee on board, UPA and supporting parties end up with 48% of the vote, giving the West Bengal chief minister a veto of sorts on proceedings. In 2007, UPA commanded a firm majority with the Left and Patil polled 6.3 lakh votes. UPA can make the grade if Left replaces Trinamool, but the option is politically fraught.

The good news for the government is that the opposition will find it hard to mount a credible challenge. If NDA (28%), BJD (3%), Trinamool (4%), BSP (4%), SP (6%) and Left (5%) all join hands, the combination will add up to 50%. Such a scenario is riddled with contradictions, the most glaring being a Mamata-Left deal.

The BJP has a 21% share of the votes and the NDA has 28%. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) has 4% of the votes and adding the SP, BSP and BJD will take the total to 42% of the college, still way short of a majority mark. The race might be lost before the starting shot.

BJP leaders have calculated that it could be worth backing a candidate put up by regional leaders like AIADMK’s J Jayalalitha and BJD’s Naveen Patnaik. If these leaders could further rope in the SP and Trinamool Congress, their plans could gain some traction, it is felt. But even in such a situation, the allies would find it hard to get to the 45% mark.