PM Modi's challenge for 2016 is to make foreign policy and trade walk together, not hang separately

Until Narendra Modi played Santa Claus with Nawaz Sharif, his 2015 would have been another hectic peripatetic year signing off with an inspiring speech to the new Afghan parliament. Modi's `inbox' for 2016 is now filling up rapidly, defying all good intentions to stay home next year.
But first, his 'outbox'. In a year when Modi zipped around the world but attracted some flak at home for being a `tourist', a few things in his foreign policy went much beyond the measurement of investment billions his people throw around.

India showed unusual dexterity in utilising a narrow diplomatic window o engage Gulf Arab states. Modi, during his August visit to the UAE, positioned India as an attractive alternative for these sheikhdoms to embrace a new paradigm, weaning them away from the Islamist sauce sold by Pakistan. If places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Doha and Muscat want to become more like Singapore they need o cast off some old thinking. India is a promising harbour.

In the process, India has re-inserted tself into the Gulf and Middle East conversation, walking a diplomatic ightrope (successfully thus far) to not only deter ISIS and any terror progeny but also constrict Pakistan's manoeuvring room in the region. In the coming year, Modi will certainly engage Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel at the highest evels ­ in fact, foreign minister Sushma Swaraj is expected to travel to Israel n the coming weeks to prepare the ground for a Modi visit later in 2016.

Modi, we know, loves hanging out with world leaders. But this paled in comparison to his jaunt through Silicon Valley in September. In that one sojourn, Modi changed the India brand tagline ­ after several years of slowpoke policies, India has placed tself squarely on the Map of Attrac ions for tech and innovation biggies n the IT, energy and education sec ors. Modi just has to ensure that his business policies become progressive y easier, and that India is seen to be on he right side of the kind of open inclu sive ecosystems that nurture innovation, and he would have breathed new life into Digital India, Clean India, Startup India and Make in India.

One of the bigger takeaways from this year has been the evolution of the India-US-Japan trilateral relationship. Both countries are favourites of the Modi government. Modi and Barack Obama could share the honours for giving the world a credible climate deal, as the US celebrated its place as India's top defence supplier by starting work on an aircraft carrier.With Japan joining US-India Malabar naval exercises, freezing a nuclear deal and snagging a massive high-speed railway project, Shinzo Abe performing `Ganga aarti' with Modi in Varanasi was a perfectly natural thing to do.

All three shy away from mentioning the gorilla in the room, but as China becomes bigger and meaner, these three countries could be the bedrock of the `balance'.

Modi will have to make more time for the immediate neighbourhood in 2016.That means Pakistan to most people.Modi wants to chart a different narrative with Islamabad after his coercive diplomacy crashlanded with an unedifying quarrel over Hurriyat. With the Paris meeting, India overnight changed tack and gave everything on Islamabad's wishlist ­ foreign secretary talks, full-spectrum dialogue, the works. He is about to find out that being nice to Pakistan yields almost no extra benefits than being mean to them.

But he has transferred the onus of good behaviour and terror delivery on to Pakistan. A Mumbai-2 will attract savage reprisal, and no world criticism. Achievement? India and Pakistan started an NSA-level conversation on terrorism, blessed by the Pakistan army brass. That's not a small deal, and you can thank them for the Christmas treat in Lahore.

A staple of Modi's foreign visits have been those choreographed diaspora events Modi has successfully appropriated the NRI as an achievement of Indian soft power. Which is great, but frankly, the formula has run its course. He can't possibly repeat Madison Square Garden or Wembley David Cameron probably got more out of the Wembley bash than Modi did! There just aren't that many liberal democracies comfortable with the idea of a foreign leader gathering thousands of screaming fans under their skies Singapore, for instance, was distinctly uncomfortable and they like Modi. Also Modi's staple praise of the governments can only go so far what will he say in Saudi Arabia, for instance? How it's a benevolent moderate monarchy?

The Indian diaspora will cheer with their hearts, but will invest with their heads. Therefore, the best foreign policy action Modi can take in 2016 is to make it easier for them to do that.Here, his record has been less than spectacular. In fact, his outbox is startlingly free of the following: GST, simpler tax regime, a transformational budget or being open to freer trade.

The last is Modi's weakest foreign policy link. All his expressed ambitions, his policies, are predicated on India becoming a major player in the global system, which basically means India needs to be more integrated into the world trade system. But our trade mandarins have not yet got the memo.

In Paris, India was part of a global solution; in Nairobi, India was teaching rich countries a moral science lesson wrapped in the flag. Southeast Asia silently prays for India to exit the RCEP talks so they can get on with their future; the US would rather support Papua New Guinea for TPP than India in APEC, and many believe the real parents of TPP and TTIP live in the intransigence of high minded Indian officials, whose fantastic debating skills are sort of useless when it comes to closing trade deals.

Modi's foreign policy needs to think seriously about incorporating trade into its ecosystem, so foreign policy and trade can walk together, not hang separately.