Pawar's decision may seal fate of MVA in Rajya Sabha battle

While the Congress and Shiv Sena-UBT have publicly staked their respective claims for the one Rajya Sabha seat that the Opposition Maha Vikash Aghadi (MVA) is theoretically in a position to win in the upcoming election for seven Upper House seats from Maharashtra, Opposition campers also acknowledge that NCP(SP) chief Sharad Pawar is holding the key to either stabilise the fragile coalition equations to help MVA net the seat or queer the pitch to make the MVA squander it.

Many feel that at stake in this Rajya Sabha election is not just a seat for the Opposition but the future of MVA's unity itself.

Maharashtra political circles see in NCP(SP) MLAs skipping the MVA press conference on Sunday on the commencement of the Maharashtra Assembly session, Pawar's move to set the cat among the pigeons. Notwithstanding the Congress' and SS-UBT's public posturing, all MVA allies are waiting for a signal from Pawar, currently recuperating in a hospital, on whether he is open for yet another Rajya Sabha term, a factor many think will impact MVA and also the BJP-led Mahayuti (which can win six RS seats on its own) play regarding the seventh seat. Pawar, 85, who completed a record uninterrupted 60 years in Parliamentary career on Sunday, is one of the seven retiring Rajya Sabha members from Maharashtra, causing the biennial elections.


"Given his stature and political reach, we are waiting for Pawar saheb to bring clarity soon on whether he is thinking of contesting for the Rajya Sabha seat. Only then others can firm up their positions. I think even the BJP front would be waiting and watching Pawar's move before the Mahayuti front decides its course, to force a contest or opt for consensus, in the Rajya Sabha election, especially for the seventh seat," said a senior Opposition leader in Delhi. Some feel, MVA partners could reach a settlement on its Rajya Sabha candidate by connecting it to the MVA choice for the one Maharashtra Legislative Council seat, which the Opposition is in a position to win, as Sena (UBT) chief Udhav Thackeray's current Council term is coming to an end.

While Pawar's NCP (SP) has only 10 MLAs compared to SS (UBT)'s 20 and Congress' 16, yet Pawar is widely perceived to be the tilting factor in the coalition's slippery equations. While the combined MVA has 46 MLAs on paper, nine more than the 37 required to win an RS seat, yet its leaders are over cautious given the alliance is perceived to be prone to turbulence in case of internal rift over RS candidature, more so as they feel that the BJP is on the prowl to make use, on a long-term basis, any rift within the MVA.

The Rajya Sabha election is taking place in the backdrop of the recent death of Maharashtra deputy CM Ajit Pawar in a plane crash. The fact two NCP factions headed by Pawar and his nephew were in advanced merger talks before Ajit Pawar's sudden death also adds to the curiosity of the two factions' play during the Rajya Sabha poll.