Passing key bills may be tough if Shiv Sena quits NDA

NEW DELHI: Splitting from Shiv Sena will certainly not be a threat to NDA's stability at the Centre, but it may be bad news for crucial economic reforms planned by the Narendra Modi government.

If BJP and Shiv Sena split, NDA will lose its majority in a joint session of Parliament. The government which lacks majority in the Rajya Sabha plans to use the joint sitting route to get around resistance from opponents to legislations such as insurance amendment bill, changes in land acquisition act and constitutional amendment that will be needed for the goods and services tax (GST) bill.

The existing collective strength of NDA in both Houses of Parliament is 396 — four more than the number needed to cross the half-way mark in case all members of the two Houses attend the joint session and vote.

But if Shiv Sena walks out of the ruling coalition, NDA's total strength would be reduced to 375 — 17 short of the magic figure.

In that case, the government will find it difficult to get the bills passed during the joint session unless it garners support from potential like-minded parties like BJD and AIADMK or it is able to impress upon parties like NCP to either abstain from voting or support the proposed legislations.

It is expected that in the case of a break with Shiv Sena, NDA can get the support of NCP. Legal troubles of AIADMK supremo J Jayalaitha have also enhanced the possibility of her party avoiding a path of confrontation with Centre.

History shows that ruling parties' in the past have always managed to get more support than what is evident. Invariably, independents and one-member parties prefer to side with the government in such a scenario.

The UPA government had got out of many crunch situations because of the support from BSP and SP even though both outfits from Uttar Pradesh were bitterly arrayed against sCongress in the state.