Parties use surveys as eyes & ears

MUMBAI: Which way is the wind blowing? What is the scene like at Ground Zero? How many seats is the rival party likely to win? In the hurly-burly of polls for the civic body of India���s financial capital, political share-holders are posing these fundamental questions to the real stakeholders ��� the citizens.

The big four of Mumbai���s political landscape ��� the Shiv Sena, the Congress, the BJP and the NCP ��� have independently carried out internal surveys to get a tentative picture of the BMC house, post-February 1. The exercise, though not uncommon in elections, has thrown up some interesting leads for the major political players which underline the unique nature of the polls.

���It���s not just another election where you can either predict a winner or give some tentative numbers. This election is too close to call and that���s why such internal surveys are important in the sense they help us start working out future equations,��� was the reasoning a BJP leader gave. On record, all parties are claiming victory. In fact, the Shiv Sena-BJP are quoting some curious intelligence inputs which predict a comfortable return to power for the saffron siblings, sources said.

But the rhetoric apart, the surveys, being termed as ���internal assessment of the ground situation��� by all parties alike, do point to some interesting undercurrents. A common feature of all surveys, which the parties acknowledge off the record, is that they all predict a hung house. This particular input is fuelling speculation about post-poll churning among different parties.

���The surveys have mapped out all 227 wards and all parties have a fairly good picture of the outcome unless something very drastic throws all equations awry. As of now, projections of a fractured mandate have forced all parties, the Congress in particular and the NCP, to think about the future,��� a Congress functionary said.

Another interesting finding from this assessment which may not exactly be music to the Congress��� ears is the possibility of the NCP unofficially helping the Shiv Sena. ���We have credible information that the NCP will reach out to the Shiv Sena,��� let on a senior Congress leader. The Congress here is banking on the intelligence inputs of two former Shiv Sainiks ��� Chhagan Bhujbal and Narayan Rane.

���In particular, Mr Rane is projecting with a certain degree of confidence that the Shiv Sena would be able to hold on to at least 55-60 seats in its bastions. He has even pointed out these wards to the party bosses and is working overtime to damage the Sena in its strongholds,��� another Congress leader said.

Sources said Mr Rane had even studied the ���nuisance��� value of Raj Thackeray���s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. ���Our indications are that the MNS will impact the elections in a major way in areas like Borivli, Mulund, Bhandup, Andheri, Parel, Lalbaugh, and Dadar. It will eat into the Sena votes in most of these areas. In northern suburbs, the MNS will affect the BJP,��� the Congress leader said. Interestingly, the MNS factor has been acknowledged by the BJP���s survey also.