Outcome of assembly polls crucial for BJP’s Lok Sabha target

NEW DELHI: Almost a dozen big and small states are scheduled to have Assembly polls before the Lok Sabha elections in early 2019 and the outcome of these state polls may pose a challenge to the BJP’s aim of crossing the 350-seat mark in the next general elections.

BJP chief Amit Shah and his team have realised that the party will find it difficult to hold on to many of its present Lok Sabha seats and will have to focus on states where it has been traditionally weak.

Moreover, a major concern for the BJP would be the outcome of Assembly polls -- especially in big states such as Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Rajasthan -- before 2019 as these will have some impact on the next Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP is in power in three of the above states and an anti-incumbency is said to be building against it. The Congress is in power in Karnataka and while BJP was fancying its chances of winning the next Assembly poll there in 2018, a survey has shown there is likely to be a status quo if elections are held now. A major factor for BJP victories in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh since 2003 has been the sorry state of affairs in the Congress state units in the two states.




While the grand old party is still to get its act together, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh-led dispensations in the two states have gathered a lot of moss. This is likely to lower the BJP’s seat count in the Assembly polls and consequently in the Lok Sabha seats that fall in these two states. The BJP government in MP has antagonised the farmers and there is a general perception that the present regime has failed to effectively check corruption. With Assembly polls less than a year away, Amit Shah has decided not to take a risk and announced last week that Chouhan will remain in the saddle.

The Raman Singh government is facing anti-incumbency due to its failure to keep some of the promises made to the people in the last election.

Singh, who had earned a lot of goodwill initially due to efficient implementation of PDS, is now grappling with charges of surrounding himself with officials and leaders from a particular caste. BJP leaders concede that he has also not fulfilled some of the key promises in the party manifesto in the 2013 Assembly polls.

The Rajasthan BJP unit is a divided lot with several leaders turning against chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia. A similar disarray was seen in the 2008 Assembly polls and had led to the ouster of the Scindia-led BJP government. Congress is hopeful of returning to power in 2018 and has tried to end dissensions within its rank by giving a more free hand to Sachin Pilot and moving Ashok Gehlot to Gujarat as in-charge of the state.

In 2014, the BJP had won all the Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan and Gujarat - which goes to polls this December. Repeating this performance in the general elections in 2019 appears unlikely. Even in Gujarat, BJP is not as strong as it was when Narendra Modi was chief minister and there is infighting among state leaders. New challenges-Patidar quota agitation, Dalit unrest, and a more confident Congress- have emerged. While BJP claims to have a good chance of winning Himachal Pradesh, it may see its bench strength in the Gujarat Assembly reduced to some extent.

Not surprisingly, Shah is looking for new pastures and is preparing the strategy for winning Lok Sabha seats in uncharted territories.