Nuclear power to remain important energy source: IAEA
Nuclear power is to remain a major source of energy around the world in the coming decades, especially given the concerns over climate change and energy security, the UN nuclear watchdog said.
By Agencies |
VIENNA: Nuclear power is to remain a major source of energy around the world in the coming decades, especially given the concerns over climate change and energy security, the UN nuclear watchdog said.
Much of the growth will be fuelled by energy-hungry economies like India, China, South Korea and Japan, said the IAEA's energy analyst Alan McDonald.
"Nuclear power's prominence as a major energy source will continue over the next several decades," the international Atomic Energy Agency said in a new report, entitled "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the period up to 2030."
"China and India have booming economies, booming populations and growing energy demand," McDonald said.
"They basically need to develop all the energy sources they can."
At present, nuclear power met only a small proportion of those countries' energy needs, namely two per cent in China and three per cent in India, the analyst said.
In the report, the IAEA makes both low-case and high-case projections, taking into consideration various different scenarios, which show that nuclear power production is expected to expand by at least 25 per cent between now and 2030, or by as much as 93 per cent.
"China is experiencing huge energy growth and is trying to expand every source it can, including nuclear power," the report said.
China currently had four reactors under construction and was planning a nearly five-fold expansion by 2020, the IAEA said.
Out of the 31 new nuclear power plants currently under construction around the world, half of them, 16 in all, were being built in developing countries, with most of those in China and India, McDonald said.
China currently had four reactors under construction and was planning a nearly five-fold expansion by 2020, the IAEA said.
Nevertheless, with China growing so fast, nuclear power would still amount to only four per cent of total electricity by 2020, the agency projected.
As for Japan and South Korea, the problem was not so much a booming population, as a lack of indigenous oil and gas resources.
"For them, nuclear power is attractive for energy security reasons, and for Japan in particular it is attractive in reducing greenhouse gas emissions," the analyst said.
The picture was much more complex in Europe, the IAEA expert said.
In the high-case projection, which assumed that Britain would replace all of its old, retiring nuclear power plants with new ones and that Germany would keep its plants running, nuclear capacity was projected to expand by 20 per cent by 2030.
But if Britain replaced its retiring nuclear power plants with other sources of energy, such as natural gas, and if Germany and Belgium were to phase out their nuclear programmes, "then you get a decrease in nuclear capacity of 40 per cent by 2030," McDonald said.
In North America, expansion of nuclear capacity would remain "relatively modest" in both scenarios, ranging from about 15 per cent to 50 per cent, McDonald predicted.
Much of the growth will be fuelled by energy-hungry economies like India, China, South Korea and Japan, said the IAEA's energy analyst Alan McDonald.
"Nuclear power's prominence as a major energy source will continue over the next several decades," the international Atomic Energy Agency said in a new report, entitled "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the period up to 2030."
"China and India have booming economies, booming populations and growing energy demand," McDonald said.
"They basically need to develop all the energy sources they can."
At present, nuclear power met only a small proportion of those countries' energy needs, namely two per cent in China and three per cent in India, the analyst said.
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In the report, the IAEA makes both low-case and high-case projections, taking into consideration various different scenarios, which show that nuclear power production is expected to expand by at least 25 per cent between now and 2030, or by as much as 93 per cent.
"China is experiencing huge energy growth and is trying to expand every source it can, including nuclear power," the report said.
China currently had four reactors under construction and was planning a nearly five-fold expansion by 2020, the IAEA said.
Out of the 31 new nuclear power plants currently under construction around the world, half of them, 16 in all, were being built in developing countries, with most of those in China and India, McDonald said.
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China currently had four reactors under construction and was planning a nearly five-fold expansion by 2020, the IAEA said.
Nevertheless, with China growing so fast, nuclear power would still amount to only four per cent of total electricity by 2020, the agency projected.
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As for Japan and South Korea, the problem was not so much a booming population, as a lack of indigenous oil and gas resources.
"For them, nuclear power is attractive for energy security reasons, and for Japan in particular it is attractive in reducing greenhouse gas emissions," the analyst said.
The picture was much more complex in Europe, the IAEA expert said.
In the high-case projection, which assumed that Britain would replace all of its old, retiring nuclear power plants with new ones and that Germany would keep its plants running, nuclear capacity was projected to expand by 20 per cent by 2030.
But if Britain replaced its retiring nuclear power plants with other sources of energy, such as natural gas, and if Germany and Belgium were to phase out their nuclear programmes, "then you get a decrease in nuclear capacity of 40 per cent by 2030," McDonald said.
In North America, expansion of nuclear capacity would remain "relatively modest" in both scenarios, ranging from about 15 per cent to 50 per cent, McDonald predicted.
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