Now, BSP strength in Rajya Sabha set to come down

LUCKNOW: For a party that goes by the moniker of Bahujan Samaj or "people in majority", the BSP's shrinking base among its voters, primarily Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes as well as a smattering of Other Backward Classes, could soon send the organization that Kanshi Ram founded in 1984 into an irreversible tailspin. At least this is the assessment of many dalit watchers in Uttar Pradesh, the state in which BSP has been a major political player for the last two decades.

An iron grip on the party organization by Mayawati means no one save her handpicked colleagues have the freedom to speak on BSP's affairs. But, this hasn't prevented some party functionaries from privately admitting that the BSP faces the most serious threat to its three-decade-old existence — a threat exacerbated by the virtual end of its national party status.

Worse, the dalit party finds itself drawn towards yet another embarrassment: loss of Rajya Sabha members by November from 14 to 10, when six of its MPs retire making way for only two. A reduced strength in the Upper House would mean Mayawati would lose the elbow room to push her agenda like reservation in promotions in government service, diluting her appeal among her supporters.

So, is Mayawati losing her political stature? Political analysts say the BSP supremo is going down in the perception battle and losing sheen rapidly. Dalit watcher SR Darapuri says it would take extraordinary capacity to mount a fight-back for Mayawati to revive her party's fortunes.

"Her core vote of dalits has slipped out of her hands. And this isn't without reason. She allowed only certain sub-castes within the dalit fabric, to which she belongs, to progress, ignoring others. That's the perception. This resulted in large chunks of her vote base, like Passi, Kori, and Mallah, looking away,'' Darapuri told TOI.

Even the upper castes, Darapuri said, have deserted her, attracted to the BJP's development agenda, being aped by the SP. "The upper castes have a tendency to side with the winning party. In BSP's case, they were disillusioned and moved away,'' he said. Communal polarization too has hurt her interests, with BJP and SP gaining from her loss. BSP votes in UP dropped from 30.43% in 2007 to 25.95 in 2012, and down from 6.17% in 2009 to 4.3% in 2014 in the Lok Sabha elections.

Prof Badri Narayan of GB Pant Institute of Social Sciences agrees with Darapuri, but only to some extent. "Until Mayawati devises certain hard and tactful strategy, she would not be able to overcome the repeated defeats she is suffering,'' he said. Narayan, however, is hopeful that the dalit icon will make a comeback in 2017.

"The Samajwadi Party won the by-elections because of BSP's absence. Had it been in the running, things might have turned out differently. And this is what she has to realize in the long run. She needs to be visible, approachable and more communicative,'' Narayan said. It's presence in social media is zero, said another Dalit watcher. "That may not be BSP's vote base, but for a political party to be not talked about is like death sentence," the observer added.

The BSP chief has been making changes within the party structure. She is giving better representation to youth while resurrecting BAMCEF cadre to work among the masses. But the question on everybody's lips is whether the elephant that trundled the fertile plains of UP suddenly finds itself at a dead-end.