Normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of south Asia during the 2016

PUNE: Below normal rainfall is likely over some areas of southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives, said the consensus statement on forecast for the North East Monsoon Season 2016 (October-December). However, normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of south Asia during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season (October – December).

"Above normal rainfall is likely over western and northwestern parts of Pakistan and some northeastern parts of the region. During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region," stated a release of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-9).

It further added, "This consensus forecast outlook for the 2016 northeast monsoon season rainfall and temperature over South Asia have been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world."

According to the forecast, currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and it is equally probable that these conditions are likely to continue or border line La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the northeast monsoon season. It is also recognized that other regional and global factors as well as the intra seasonal features of the region can affect the rainfall and temperature patterns over the region.

During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.