Normal monsoon likely with slow start: Skymet

New Delhi: Monsoon rainfall this year may be normal with a slow start, private forecaster Skymet said in its preliminary guidance for the vital weather phenomenon.

It has ruled out excess rainfall or a drought, and said there is over 50% chance of rainfall being normal this year as the El Nino phenomenon is not expected to have a major impact.

El Nino, which has often derailed monsoon rainfall in the past, started developing last year, as per the national weather office India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Both agencies expect weak El Nino to develop towards the June to September monsoon season. Skymet said El Nino conditions had been on the rise till December, and have shown consistent drop since then.


The current probability of El Nino developing later this year is expected to reduce to half, Skymet said. “The El Niño conditions were on the rise in the Pacific Ocean till December last. The temperatures are now declining, and the probability of El Niño is also falling. This will reduce to about 50% by the time Monsoon arrives with a gradual decline thereafter as well. This means it is going to be devolving El Niño year,” said Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet.