NDA may win up to 2/3rd of UP, Bihar seats in LS polls: Survey

BJP is well set to dominate the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and could win anywhere between half and two-thirds of the 120 seats in the two states along with its ally, an opinion poll done by a TV channel predicted on Wednesday.

The CNN-IBN election tracker, conducted by CSDS and Lokniti, predicted that BJP could win between 41 and 49 of UP’s 80 seats, a huge jump from the 10 it won in 2009. In Bihar, the party and its ally, Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP, could pick up from 22 to 30 of the state’s 40 seats. Taken together, that gives NDA a range of 63 to 79 seats in UP and Bihar.

If this projection were to come true, it would mean a big boost to Narendra Modi’s chances of becoming prime minister come May, a body blow to the hopes of regional players like Mulayam Singh, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar and a complete rout for Congress and UPA in both states.

According to the survey, SP would win between 11 and 17 seats in UP, BSP 8-14, Congress 5-9 and others 1-5.

AAP, the poll predicts, will fail to win any seats in the state and would not gather too many votes either.

In Bihar, JD(U) is projected to win 4-8 seats and RJD and Congress each are likely to get 2-6 seats with "others" getting 0-2.

Interestingly, both in UP and in Bihar, BJP’s projected vote share is actually down just a little from what a similar survey by CSDS and Lokniti had found in January this year. This suggests that BJP is really gaining from its alliance with LJP and a fragmentation of the opposition vote in both states rather than from a growing momentum in its favour.

In both states, Modi remains the clear first choice for PM, with 34% in UP and 41% in Bihar picking him. Rahul Gandhi is second in Bihar and joint second in UP with Mayawati, while the other regional leaders trail behind.