NDA eyes gains as 37 Rajya Sabha seats go to polls in March

New Delhi: The biennial election to 37 seats in the Rajya Sabha, to be held on March 16, is set to deliver a modest but clear advantage to the ruling NDA, based on the current strength of the member parties in their respective state assemblies and without factoring in cross-voting.

Of the retiring MPs, BJP accounts for nine seats and its NDA allies for six, taking the ruling bloc's outgoing tally to 15. The Opposition camp, comprising Congress (four) and other INDIA bloc partners (14), is defending 18 seats. Three belong to non-aligned parties and one is vacant.

The assembly arithmetic favours BJP in key states. The party is poised to add seats in Assam, Bihar and Chhattisgarh. Maharashtra could deliver the biggest dividend, with projections suggesting two additional BJP seats and one for an NDA ally, while Congress is likely to lose its lone RS berth in the state.

In Odisha, BJP is expected to retain its two seats, with BJD certain of getting one. The fourth seat may hinge on Opposition coordination. However, BJP might face setbacks in Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, where Congress is positioned to gain one seat each based on current numbers.


In Telangana, where Congress is in power, it is projected to win both seats. BRS is likely to lose representation, while BJP, which currently has no Rajya Sabha member from the state, is not expected to open its account. Opposition's regional allies are largely holding their ground in their strongholds. In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress is set to retain four seats while BJP might get one.

Significantly, Communist Party of India (Marxist) may lose its sole seat from West Bengal, potentially ending decades of CPI(M) presence in the Upper House from the state.

Tamil Nadu is likely to see status quo, with the DMK-led INDIA bloc winning four seats and NDA, including AIADMK, securing two.

If results follow assembly numbers, NDA - retiring 15 members - could return with 17 or 18 seats, marking a net gain of two to three. The INDIA bloc, retiring 18, may slip to 15 or 16. Yet, past cross-voting episodes in states like Haryana and Assam serve as a reminder that in Rajya Sabha contests, numbers matter but discipline within parties matters more.