Monsoon rains likely to weaken in the next 24-48 hours

NEW DELHI: Monsoon rains which remained subdued till July erupted in the first week of August to trigger flash floods in Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh in the past few days.

Heavy rains, which claimed nine lives in Madhya Pradesh, are likely to weaken in the next 24-48 hours bringing respite to the flood-hit areas of central and western Madhya Pradesh.

Improvement in rainfall has resulted in the narrowing down the overall deficit of 22% in the last week of July to 17%."Good rains in the first week of August are due to favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the western Pacific, which has moved eastwards. It will continue for a couple of days and again it will enter into a weak phase causing precipitation to come down," said IMD's long-range chief forecaster D Sivananda Pai.

The MJO is as an eastward moving "pulse" of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. It influences the timing, development and strength of the major global monsoon patterns.

According to a climate note by Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the MJO has slowly moved eastwards across the western Pacific during the past week, with most convection north of 15° N. "The southwest Indian monsoon is likely to become active when the MJO reaches the western Indian Ocean," it said.

Recent rains in Madhya Pradesh have improved the prospects of soya bean, which is widely cultivated in the state. Trade body Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) expects soya bean acreage to touch 58 lakh hectares in Madhya Pradesh. "There might be some accumulation of water in low-lying areas but overall rains are likely to improve crop size not only of soya bean but also of other crops," said Rajesh Agrawal, spokesperson and coordinator, SOPA.

Due to the MJO effect, rainfall activities have also improved in the southern peninsula, bringing heavy rains in Karnataka and Kerala where a couple of districts are reeling under floods.

However, the situation in rain-deficient states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab and Maharashtra has not improved with rains eluding the northwestern parts of the country. The deficiency in this region is at 32% as against the overall deficit of 17%. "The situation is still bad in these states. There is problem in Karnataka, Marathwada and central parts of Maharashtra and Saurashtra, and Kutch region of Gujarat," said agriculture minister Sharad Pawar, who recently visited these states to review the situation.