Monsoon may fall short in September, says IITM model

PUNE: Monsoon rains may fall short in September, an experimental model of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) shows, reducing the chances of late showers making up for a likely deficiency in July and August. For rainfall this month and in August, the forecast concurs with the India Meteorology Department’s (IMD) prediction that the monsoon would be about 10% below average in this period. For September, however, an experimental model of the IMD indicates the chances of strong rains.

The MeT though has issued monthly forecasts only for July and August, the period that gets the bulk of the monsoon showers and is most critical for agricultural production. The monsoon began late this year, but it strengthened significantly by the second week of June.

Total rainfall during last month was 16% more than normal, which has prepared the ground for crop planting, and has filled up reservoirs to a much higher level than average.

However, rainfall has declined in the past week and the season’s rainfall surplus has dropped from a peak of 28%.