Monsoon likely to hit Kerala on schedule: Indian Meteorological Department

PUNE: Indian Meteorological Department officials said on Monday that monsoon was unlikely to hit the Indian mainland (Kerala coast) early after the rain system reached south Andamans three days before the normal date.

The officials expect a normal monsoon onset date over Kerala. A K Sahai, climate research and services, IMD, Pune, told TOI that an anti-cyclone in the lower levels over the Arabian Sea was hindering the further advancement of monsoon towards the west coast and Kerala. "Extended-range forecasts show that the anticyclone is expected to dissipate by May-end, leading to the strengthening of the westerlies. This will translate into a normal monsoon onset date over Kerala," said Sahai.

Monsoon normally reaches Kerala on June 1. A late or early onset by a day or two is considered normal.The south-west monsoon had advanced into some parts of south-east Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, south Andaman Sea and parts of north Andaman Sea on May 14, a day prior to its onset date. But there was no progress on Monday.


On how monsoon is expected to fare this year, Sahai said with models showing the weakening of El Nino and strengthening of Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, hopes for rains close to 100% of the 50-year average were becoming more plausible.