Modi unlikely to get his 150 seats, but it would still be a feat for BJP

NEW DELHI: If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins but falls way short of a sweep (it has set a lofty target of 150 seats) in the Gujarat assembly elections, it will still be a feat by the party with several decades of incumbency. But it can still put in doubt the Modi wave which has been sweeping the country since the BJP won a landslide victory in the last Lok Sabha elections in 2014.

The BJP's victory with a small margin will be an achievement for the party which has struggled to mollify voters after its radical economic reforms such as demonetisation and GST disrupted businesses and caused resentment among its core voter groups.

Add to that the Patel challenge mounted by quota leader Hardik Patel and caste leaders Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakore siding with the Congress.


Yet, after the BJP's stunning victory in Uttar Pradesh early this year, the bar was raised for the party. A victory in Gujarat without a good margin might indicate the opposition';s Gujarat strategy might be somewhat effective when nothing seems to be working against the magic spell of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Such a victory will not only embolden the opposition parties to try a similar strategy in future elections but also make Modi less aggressive with his reform agenda. If the BJP wins with fewer seats, it will be an opportunity for the opposition to mobilise across India for the next Lok Sabha elections.

If the BJP loses a significant part of its vote share due to the Patidar discontent, the Congress will use Gujarat as a template for the next Lok Sabha elections. Even a partially successful caste strategy in Gujarat will embolden the Congress to try it elsewhere too.

So far, the Congress has had an utter disconnect with the masses. It's leader, Rahu Gandhi, does not come across as a convincing opponent to Modi. But a Congress with a strategy and a confident leader can sure prove to be a difficult challenge to Modi in the Lok Sabha elections.