Met forecasts blazing summer across North India

Be prepared for a hot spring and a scorching summer. The meteorological office says average temperatures from March to May across half the country are likely to be above normal by more than 1 degree Celsius.

These months are expected to be particularly merciless in north India. Delhi, along with Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan, is likely to see average temperatures soar over 1.5 degrees above normal. The maximum rise, however, has been projected in the hill states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where average temperatures could be a massive 2.3 degrees higher than usual.

The seasonal forecast, released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday, also notes that there is about 52% probability that maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone during the period of March to May will touch their peak — pointing to a high likelihood of heat waves.


This zone includes Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The forecast projects higher than normal temperature across India.

Outlook carries a positive sign for a normal monsoon
The seasonal average maximum temperature is likely to be warmer than normal by ≥1°C over these states (heat wave zone) whereas it is likely to be <0.5°C over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema. Remaining subdivisions are likely to experience maximum temperature anomalies between 0.5°C and 1°C.

IMD says the regions where the temperature rise is likely to be moderate are south India and four north-eastern states. The outlook shows that the seasonal average mean temperature in Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and north-eastern states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura is likely to be less than 0.5 degree Celsius above normal.

The forecast for the March-May period is prepared on the basis of prevailing initial conditions in February.

“In the absence of other large scale signals during the March-May period, the increased temperatures predicted in the forecast can be attributed to global warming,” said D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD’s long term forecasting division which made the forecast.

“A majority of international weather models have been showing increased temperatures in most parts of the world in the recent years. This shows a global warming trend,” he added.

The outlook, however, carried a positive sign for a normal monsoon this year as it noted moderate La Nina conditions over equatorial Pacific even if it weakens by spring season.

The outlook indicates “above normal” maximum, minimum and mean temperatures across the country. “Overall, the temperature anomaly patterns show increase in the magnitudes of the anomalies from southeastern parts to the north-western parts of the country”, said the IMD.