Lok Sabha polls 2014: Muslim votes matter the most in this round

LUCKNOW: Desperate to stop the saffron march to Delhi, SP will have to do much better than 2009 on 11 seats of west UP and Rohilkhand going to polls on Thursday. SP had won four of these 11 seats in 2009.

These seats — from Nagina to Kheri — have the highest concentrations of Muslims in UP compared to other regons in the state and will test BJP's attempt to engineer a polarization to counter the drift of minority votes towards SP. Bareilly, Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit have seen communal fl are-ups in the past two years. While BJP banks on polarization and Modi's charisma, SP and BSP are trying to keep backward and Dalit vote banks intact.

Muslims will play a crucial role for SP and BSP, though SP is their favourite. RLD's hold on Jats has weakened, they've moved towards BJP. The clout of high-profile netas like BJP's Maneka Gandhi and SP's controversial Azam Khan and Rampur's royal family are at stake in this round. The region has a 13-23 % Dalits, 38-49 % Muslims and 30% backward classes, mainly Yadavs. Brahmins, Sikhs have a presence in Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur , Kheri and Aonla. Dalit pockets vote Mayawati, Yadavs root for SP, giving both a strong base vote to build on.