Lok Sabha polls 2014: Mumbai may throw up surprise verdict

MUMBAI: The financial capital of the country, which gave a clean sweep to the Congress-NCP combine in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, might throw up some surprises this time round.

As Mumbai prepares to go to polls on Thursday, major political parties have put all their strength behind their candidates fighting on the six Lok Sabha seats in the city. In the run–up to the polls, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi addressed a massive rally with Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray on Monday, giving an indication of how important the six Mumbai seats are to the NDA.

The Congress and NCP held a rally at the same venue at the Bandra-Kurla Complex on the previous day, where Rahul Gandhi highlighted the city’s infrastructure development in the last 10 years.

Apart from the anti-incumbency factor, Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) can make some impact on the poll outcome in all the six seats. It is certain that in almost all the six constituencies, the winner’s margin could be very small.

The Congress is harping on infra projects in the city such as the Eastern Freeway and Mono Rail. Chief minister Prithviraj Chavan said, “We are in the process of implementing infrastructure projects worth over Rs 50,000 crore in Mumbai. Projects like the Eastern Freeway, Mono Rail, Metro Rail and Sahar elevated road have changed the face of the city. Mumbai is on the verge of becoming a world-class financial hub in the next few years and voters understand this well. They have always supported us in the past and will continue to do so.”

But infrastructure may not be enough to save the day for the Congress and NCP in the upcoming elections. In most of the six constituencies, slum dwellers constitute over 80% of the total voters who turn up for polling. “People are tired of the Congress and we can sense a Modi wave in Mumbai. We will win all six seats in this city,” says BJP’s Gopinath Munde.

In 2009, MNS was able to cause a split in the anti-Congress votes in Mumbai and the rest of Maharashtra. In Mumbai-North, Congress’s Sanjay Nirupam won by just 5,779 votes, while NCP’s Sanjay Dina Patil won by only 2,933 votes!

It was obvious that the candidates fielded by Raj indirectly helped the Congress-NCP in three out of the six constituencies by eating into the BJP-Sena votes.

This time AAP’s entry into the fray and MNS candidates splitting some of Sena’s votes will make an impact in most seats.

Another aspect is minority votes. Most analysts say minority votes will be very crucial in deciding results in at least four of the six constituencies.