Lok Sabha polls 2014: It’s still anybody’s game in East Delhi

NEW DELHI: For East Delhi MP Sandeep Dikshit, this election will be tough. His party, Congress, isn't showing much promise after its defeat, more a rout, in the December 2013 Delhi assembly elections; and though Sandeep has won the seat twice (in 2009, he got over 60% votes), this time he is facing strong anti-incumbency. Yet, it's just one of Sandeep's many problems.

Congress's traditional vote banks—the middle class and minorities—will be split between its rivals, BJP and AAP. Middle class voters are shifting to BJP under a strong Modi wave; the minority voters in slums and resettlement colonies are leaning towards AAP.

As an MP, Sandeep's greatest achievement is probably the Delhi Metro, which has connected east with other parts of the city. Actually, in areas like IP Extension and Mayur Vihar, people have little to complain about Sandeep as an MP; but they seem to be fed up with the 10-year Congress rule and are looking for change. Also, they are sceptical about his promise of development, with the 15-year Congress rule ending in Delhi and a non-Congress government likely to take oath of office by May. Sandeep's biggest challenge, therefore, would be to break this perception and woo voters in Trilokpuri, Patparganj, Shahdara, Kondli, Krishna Nagar etc back to the Congress fold. JJ clusters and resettlement colonies could be a deciding factor, but AAP has already made inroads here. To beat this, Sandeep has been going from door to door, asking for votes. But that apart, there's one thing that could work in his favour: disillusioned AAP voters in his constituency.

A large chunk of people who voted for AAP in the assembly polls has ever since moved away from the party. These voters are now looking towards other parties after Kejriwal's controversial stint in the Delhi government. In Trilokpuri for instance, where AAP won and BJP came second, a large number of residents have already written off the new outfit. "For us it's either BJP or Congress at the Centre. I voted for AAP in the Delhi elections but now I don't have faith in it anymore," said Jaspreet Kohli, a resident.

Sandeep can also take comfort in the fact that Okhla, a Congress bastion, may still vote for the party despite anti-incumbency. But JJ clusters and resettlement colonies will continue to trouble Congress, as these are now AAP strongholds. That party's candidate, Rajmohan Gandhi, will benefit from this even though he is a newcomer. Also, the constituency has the second highest number of Sikh voters after west Delhi; and Sikhs have, of late, shown a leaning for AAP.

AAP is still poised to give a tough battle to the bigger parties. A large segment of those voting for Congress in the assembly elections, including Muslims, is expected to shift towards AAP. East Delhi has roughly 18% Muslims, and in areas like Khureji and Shahdara, Muslims might overwhelmingly support AAP. Yet, trends show Muslim vote could be split between AAP and Congress, in which case it would be an advantage for BJP.

BJP has emerged strong in this constituency, but its candidate, Maheish Girri, is a completely unknown face. He is banking on the Modi wave and his volunteers to see him through. And it might work, since for many residents, BJP means Modi; and with Modi's persona having overshadowed even the party, Girri's inexperience will probably not make a difference, especially in middle class areas that are rooting for BJP's PM candidate.

"We have no idea who the East Delhi candidate is but most people in our area want to see Modi as PM, and we will vote for anyone who is contesting on a BJP ticket. He is the only one who is capable of leading the country," said Prabha Rani, a resident of Krishna Nagar. This colony is a BJP stronghold from where its Chandni Chowk candidate Harsh Vardhan won in the last assembly elections.