Lok Sabha elections 2014: Religious and caste groups pick their stars ahead of Varanasi polls

VARANASI: As the polling day finally arrives in Varanasi, the focus of the nation’s attention because of its VVIP candidates Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal, indications about the preferred choice or voting patterns among some of the major communities appear to be emerging.

Of the more than 16 lakh voters in the high-profile constituency, there are four groups historically known to prefer voting en block: upper castes (who include Brahmins, Bhumihars and others) with their combined strength of more than four lakh votes, Muslims who have over three lakh votes; Kurmi Patels with nearly 2.5 lakh votes and Dalits with about two lakh votes. While the Kurmi Patels, classified as ‘Other Backward Castes’ in official parlance, and upper castes have been historically inclined towards the BJP, Muslims and Dalits usually prefer the BSP and Congress.

Conversations with a cross section of the constituency’s voters and political party campaigners indicate the wider trends that will likely reflect during voting on Monday. First, a look at the desperately sought after Muslim vote.

Despite the Congress and SP finally putting up a show of strength through their important leaders’ roadshows on Saturday in the city, it appears the Muslim vote continues to drift towards Aam Aadmi Party’s Kejriwal.

While it is certain to be split, a major chunk of this vote will go to the AAP founder.

“I have been taking reports from all across Varanasi, especially from those places where society and Mohallah elders have consciously decided about voting, and the clear choice appears to be for Kejriwal,” said Varanasi’s Mufti Noomani. Conversations with several Muslims across the city indicate that while some votes will definitely go to Congress candidate Ajay Rai, the number will be far fewer than that will come the AAP’s way.

The symbolically as well as numerically relevant Kurmi Patel vote — concentrated largely in the rural areas — is most likely to be split between the BJP and Kejriwal, with the majority preferring the BJP’s way thanks to its alliance with the Apna Dal, an outfit that is immensely strong in the Rohaniya and Sevapuri rural assembly areas.

The natural choice for Bhumihars is the BJP. Rai, the Congress candidate and a Bhumihar himself, is unlikely to get as many votes from the community as he would have liked because of the party’s alliance with Mukhtar Ansari, who is accused of attacking Bhumihar leaders. And, Dalits may not vote for the BSP in large numbers as before, likely preferring the AAP option instead.