Kerala heading towards zero-population growth rate

THIRUVANATHAPURAM: Kerala is heading for a significant phase in its demographic transition with the state moving towards achieving zero population growth rate, which will lead to scarcity of labour.

With a very low fertility rate and stabilising death rate, Kerala is expected to achieve zero population growth rate in 25 to 30 years, a stage indicating the incipient decline of the population, according to the State Urbanisation Report.

"Kerala is already experiencing negative population growth and with birth and death rate remaining at the same level, the state's population growth will reach zero level", Population Expert at the Centre for Development Studies S Irudaya Rajan RPT S Irudaya Rajan told PTI here.

The very low natural increase in population, low fertility rate, stabilised death rate all leads to the third stage of demographic transition in Kerala -- zero population growth rate, he said.

There would be more old people, leading to health related problems. Also, there would be shortage of labour.

The report, prepared by the Department of Town and Country Planning, found that migration from the state and decline in fertility is a cause for low population growth.

Interestingly there were regional variations in population growth. There was also a spatial shift in the region of high population growth rate in the last five decades.

While in the 1950s, the southern districts showed high population growth, at present the growth rate is in central and northern districts, the report said.