Karnataka trust vote: Who stands where
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Decision maker is the 'Speaker'
The Supreme Court (SC) on Wednesday left it to the Karnataka assembly speaker KR Ramesh Kumar to decide on the resignations of the 15 rebel Congress and Janata Dal (S) MLAs but ordered that they should not be compelled to attend the proceedings of the state Assembly. The speaker said he would conduct himself “responsibly in accordance with constitutional principles”.
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A floor test for Cong-JD(S)
The interim order though wouldn't have been good news for HD Kumaraswamy as his Congress-JD(S) government prepares to face a floor test in the Vidhana Soudha today. That’s because by granting the rebel MLAs the liberty to skip the trust vote, the SC has in effect ensured that the party whip cannot force them to be present, and thereby face the threat of disqualification if they don't vote as per their party line.
Remember, if the lawmakers are disqualified, they must be re-elected and can't become ministers. A resignation, on the other hand, allows lawmakers to become ministers easily if the BJP comes to power. They will have six months to seek re-election. Now, on to the math:
Remember, if the lawmakers are disqualified, they must be re-elected and can't become ministers. A resignation, on the other hand, allows lawmakers to become ministers easily if the BJP comes to power. They will have six months to seek re-election. Now, on to the math:
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Here's the math
BEFORE RESIGNATIONS
BJP: 105, Congress: 80 (including speaker + nominated member), JD(S): 37, Independents: 2, BSP: 1; Total: 225
AFTER 15 RESIGNATIONS : 12 Cong + 3 JD (S)
BJP: 105, Congress: 68, JD(S): 34, Independents: 2, BSP: 1; Total 210, For majority: 106
BJP: 105, Congress: 80 (including speaker + nominated member), JD(S): 37, Independents: 2, BSP: 1; Total: 225
AFTER 15 RESIGNATIONS : 12 Cong + 3 JD (S)
BJP: 105, Congress: 68, JD(S): 34, Independents: 2, BSP: 1; Total 210, For majority: 106
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'Floor' scenarios for today:
As of now, the two independents have pledged support to BJP, taking its strength to 107. However, the BSP member is still undecided. And that throws up these 'floor' scenarios for today:
IF NONE OF THE 15 MLAS WITHDRAW THEIR RESIGNATIONS
BJP: 107; Coalition: 102; BSP: 1; Total strength: 210, For majority: 106
IF SPEAKER DISQUALIFIES INDEPENDENT MEMBER R SHANKAR, AND THE BSP MEMBER GOES WITH THE COALITION
BJP: 106; Coalition: 103; Total strength: 209, For majority: 105
AND WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO BEING SAME, IF FOUR REBEL MLAS RETURN
BJP: 106, Coalition: 107 (with speaker’s vote); Total strength: 213, For majority: 107
IF NONE OF THE 15 MLAS WITHDRAW THEIR RESIGNATIONS
BJP: 107; Coalition: 102; BSP: 1; Total strength: 210, For majority: 106
IF SPEAKER DISQUALIFIES INDEPENDENT MEMBER R SHANKAR, AND THE BSP MEMBER GOES WITH THE COALITION
BJP: 106; Coalition: 103; Total strength: 209, For majority: 105
AND WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO BEING SAME, IF FOUR REBEL MLAS RETURN
BJP: 106, Coalition: 107 (with speaker’s vote); Total strength: 213, For majority: 107
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Siddaramaiah’s loyalists
The Congress-JD(S) alliance is, in fact, banking on Congress Legislature Party leader Siddaramaiah’s loyalists — ST Somashekar, Byrathi Basavaraj and N Muniratna — changing their stances and returning to Bengaluru (from Mumbai’s Renaissance Hotel where they are currently holed up). It is also confident that senior Congress leader R Ramalinga Reddy will vote in favour of the HD Kumaraswamy government.