Karnataka: Controversies and apparent inaction by Congress government give BJP the edge

Not a week passes by for Karnataka's Congress regime without the party getting embroiled in one embarrassing controversy or the other, it would seem. Many of these fade from public memory soon enough but some are likely to claim a political price. This doesn't bode well for the Congress, considering Karnataka is set to face assembly polls in less than two years and is now the only large state where the party is ruling.

Take the latest imbroglio the Siddaramaiah regime found itself in, which began innocuously enough but soon had the government on tenterhooks. A young woman police officer in Ballari, Anupama Shenoy, sent her resignation letter, citing threats from the local liquor mafia, backed by politicians. Simultaneously, she launched a guerrilla-style attack against the government through a series of posts on Facebook. The language was crude but the officer’s shots rang home, gathering many supporters online. Siddaramaiah initially chose to ignore Shenoy and sprang into action only when the damage had been done. Fortunately for him, Shenoy went ahead with her resignation, but not before raising several questions.

Though a smart politician who has capitalised on his OBC identity like no other contemporary politician in Karnataka, Siddaramaiah, who belongs to the Kuruba community, has allowed the quirkiest of mistakes like these to dent his image. Before this, he was struggling to explain the source of a Hublot watch he wore, and the hullabaloo died down only after his political rival, JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy, mysteriously relented.
For the BJP, such incidents are additional weapons in their arsenal against the chief minister, as they gear up to conquer the Congress’s last large bastion. It was no coincidence that PM Narendra Modi picked Davangere in Karnataka for one of the rallies to mark the second anniversary of his government. Modi and party president Amit Shah have given express instructions to start preparations for the Congress's defeat, state party president BS Yeddyurappa told ET Magazine. Belonging to the powerful Lingayat community, Yeddyurappa is considered the only mass leader of BJP in the state, the reason why he was re-inducted into the party despite the former chief minister forming his own outfit and contesting against the BJP in 2013, after he was forced to resign over corruption charges.

"The Congress government is arrogant, complacent and is constantly in sleep mode," says S Suresh Kumar, a former minister and BJP spokesman. Kumar rolls off a list of the government's failures, starting from inadequate preparation for the severe drought in north Karnataka, to the lack of a full-fledged industries minister in the state for nearly two years. "You cannot do that when you have a CM like N Chandrababu Naidu next-door, who invites businessmen to land in Bengaluru airport but invest in Andhra Pradesh," says Kumar. Rhetoric apart, while the Karnataka government says it has signed 147 projects worth Rs 1.33 lakh crore in its last investment jamboree in February, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are seen as nimbler in attracting major investments. Adding to this is the unyielding stance of the chief minister when it comes to tax issues, which have earned him the image of being unfriendly to business. For instance, Amazon has not been able to expand in Karnataka due to VAT issues.

The Curse of the Incumbent But the biggest headwind for the Congress is going to be anti-incumbency. No matter how well it has ruled in the past, voters have often sought a change. The SM Krishna regime of 1999-2004 was a reasonably good one, but the party bit the dust in the elections. The BJP is well-positioned to cash in on this as it has a statewide presence, unlike the Janata Dal (S), the party headed by former prime minister HD Deve Gowda.

If the Ahinda (minorities, backward classes and Dalits) votes consolidate as they did in 2013, it will benefit the Congress the most. But the possibilities are remote. Last time, when the party went to the polls under Siddaramaiah's leadership, the Kurubas, the third largest community in the state, wanted to see one of their own become the CM and voted accordingly. This time, it is generally reckoned that Siddaramaiah might not even contest the polls. This will likely cut into the Congress's vote share.

Agriculture minister Krishna Byre Gowda agrees the party will have a tough fight ahead. "Any party which has been ruling for five years will see some amount of anti-incumbency. The challenge is to overcome that." The US-educated minister, considered close to Rahul Gandhi, says the party will hold to account the BJP's performance at the Centre, and exploit the mismatch between the promises it had made during the Lok Sabha elections and the implementation. "We will highlight the promises the Congress has fulfilled in the state," adds Gowda.

The party will also be hoping to get electoral dividends from the propoor schemes the chief minister has launched, such as the Anna Bhagya scheme providing free rice to poor households, cash incentive of Rs 4 per litre of milk to dairy farmers and a host of welfare measures for backward classes and minorities.

According to political analyst S Mahadeva Prakash, the Congress can take comfort in the fact that it will get an assured share of votes, regardless of circumstances. "The Congress will get the votes of Muslims (12%), Christians (3%), Kurubas (8%) and about 15% from other communities. If it distributes tickets strategically and props up major communities like the Lingayats and Vokkaligas, it can give a tough time to the BJP," he says.

Until 2013, the Congress has secured more than 34% of votes in every election, barring 1994, when it secured a vote share of just 26%. But vote share alone is no guarantee of victory. In 2008, the Congress vote share was one percentage point more than the BJP’s but it got just 80 seats while the BJP won 110.

While the BJP has anti-incumbency on its side, party insiders say tension might arise over ticket distribution. "There is a fear that tickets will be given only to BSY's loyalists," said a leader, not wanting to be identified. Such an approach would have its own risks.

For Yeddyurappa to further tighten his grip over the party and be widely accepted, he will have to convincingly win the people's mandate, and a tally way above his 2008 scorecard.