Karnataka a good state for independents to fight in

After being denied tickets this elections, discontented individuals from across parties have sworn to defeat their parties’ official candidates. While some have already joined rival parties, a few others are likely to contest as independents.

How many independents will contest will be clear after April 27, but an analysis of the past five elections shows that Karnataka’s electors give such candidates a greater chance of winning compared with 10 major states.

An analysis of results of 50 elections — five each of Karnataka, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, New Delhi, Bihar, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh — shows that nearly 2 per cent of independents in Karnataka stand a good chance of winning. Barring Rajasthan, no other state has offered more than 1 per cent chance of winning.

Political analyst S Mahadevprakash says the trend of more independents winning began in 1983, when 22 won. He says strong local leaders, especially at the zilla panchayat level, with 30,000 to 40,000 votes in their banks on an average cause an upset.

“This happens every time there is a three-party fight, like in 1983 when BJP won 18 seats, or from early 1990s onwards. That’s because some of these strong local leaders are able to also garner votes when there is already a fractured mandate in the constituency,” he said.

Of the states analysed, UP has seen the highest number of independents contesting in the past five elections — 10,118 — of whom 47 have won, while Tamil Nadu gives independents the least winning chance, at 0.05. Karnataka saw 4,335 independents, of whom 77 won.

Harish Ramaswamy, a political analyst, says this is possibly because more independents here are actually rebel candidates. For example, Belur Gopalakrishna, who was denied a ticket by BJP in Sagar, said not only would he not back Hartal Halappa (who got the ticket), he’d ensure BJP is routed.

“Independents who make a difference are confident people who think they have nurtured the constituencies. When they rebel and contest, they also take away a good portion of the party’s machinery,” Ramaswamy said.