Just 150 seats and allied forces need to capture power at Centre
Notwithstanding predictions being made by a section of hyper-ventillating pollsters, chances of the two main national parties reaching anywhere close to the 200-seat mark is looking increasingly remote.
By TNN |
NEW DELHI: With the countdown for the collapse of the UPA government at the Centre having been kicked off by the Left, political pundits have taken out their calculators while trying to figure out the shape of the next government. Given the fractured nature of the Indian polity, it is, however, clear that any party which wins some 150 seats in the next general election will be in a position to call the shots in the government-formation exercise.
Notwithstanding predictions being made by a section of hyper-ventillating pollsters, chances of the two main national parties reaching anywhere close to the 200-seat mark is looking increasingly remote. In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, both the Congress and the BJP were reduced to below 150 seats, with the Congress bagging 145 seats, and the saffron outfit 138.
It was, however, the Congress which was asked to lead the government, as it was successful in cobbling together an effective pre-poll alliance. The Left, which shared the anti-BJP sentiments nursed by the UPA, helped the coalition cross the halfway mark of 272.
The picture is likely to remain more or less the same in the 15th Lok Sabha, though the jury is still out on the identity of the party which would emerge as the single largest player. It is, however, certain that the Left will not be able to wield the same kind of clout as it does in the present arrangement, and that its role as the principal kingmaker will be usurped by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati and, to a lesser extent, Mr N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP.
The BSP, which captured power in the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh earlier this year, riding on the back of an across-the-board support, has now set its sights on the Centre. In the past few years, it has expanded its base beyond the territorial limits of Uttar Pradesh, and has managed to gain a toehold in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Delhi.
Party supremo Mayawati’s avowed goal of capturing the throne at the Centre may not come true, at least in the next round of general election, but she’s certain to play a key role in the government-formation exercise. The two leading political players will have no option but to do business with her, disregarding her image and track-record as a difficult practitioner of coalition politics.
It is also certain the two main political parties, the Congress and the BJP, will be hamstrung by the absence of caste base of their principal campaign managers. For the first time in its 27 years of existence, the saffron outfit will be led by a person who, unlike Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, will not have the backing of a major community. Besides boasting of a pan-Indian appeal, a major oratorial advantage and a secular image, Mr Vajpayee could also command the support of the Brahmins, for whom, more than anything else, he was “Pandit Atal Bihari Vajpayee”.
Mr Advani, by contrast, is certain to be find himself handicapped by the absence of such a captive support-base. To make up for the deficit caused by this factor, the former deputy prime minister will be looking to his party’s state units to deliver the seats required to make the BJP a crucial player.
To that extent, the next round of electoral battle will be, as a cloumnist described the 2004 verdict, an “aggregate of state elections”. While the BJP will to be looking to leaders such as Mr Narendra Modi in Gujarat, Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan (Madhya Pradesh), Mr B S Yediyurappa (Karnataka), Mr Raman Singh (Chhatisgarh), Ms Vasundhara Raje (Rajasthan) and Mr Sushil Kumar Modi (Bihar) to take it to the threshold, the Congress will be epxecting its chief ministers to brave anti-incumbency.
Notwithstanding predictions being made by a section of hyper-ventillating pollsters, chances of the two main national parties reaching anywhere close to the 200-seat mark is looking increasingly remote. In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, both the Congress and the BJP were reduced to below 150 seats, with the Congress bagging 145 seats, and the saffron outfit 138.
It was, however, the Congress which was asked to lead the government, as it was successful in cobbling together an effective pre-poll alliance. The Left, which shared the anti-BJP sentiments nursed by the UPA, helped the coalition cross the halfway mark of 272.
The picture is likely to remain more or less the same in the 15th Lok Sabha, though the jury is still out on the identity of the party which would emerge as the single largest player. It is, however, certain that the Left will not be able to wield the same kind of clout as it does in the present arrangement, and that its role as the principal kingmaker will be usurped by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati and, to a lesser extent, Mr N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP.
The BSP, which captured power in the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh earlier this year, riding on the back of an across-the-board support, has now set its sights on the Centre. In the past few years, it has expanded its base beyond the territorial limits of Uttar Pradesh, and has managed to gain a toehold in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Delhi.
Party supremo Mayawati’s avowed goal of capturing the throne at the Centre may not come true, at least in the next round of general election, but she’s certain to play a key role in the government-formation exercise. The two leading political players will have no option but to do business with her, disregarding her image and track-record as a difficult practitioner of coalition politics.
ADVERTISEMENT
It is also certain the two main political parties, the Congress and the BJP, will be hamstrung by the absence of caste base of their principal campaign managers. For the first time in its 27 years of existence, the saffron outfit will be led by a person who, unlike Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, will not have the backing of a major community. Besides boasting of a pan-Indian appeal, a major oratorial advantage and a secular image, Mr Vajpayee could also command the support of the Brahmins, for whom, more than anything else, he was “Pandit Atal Bihari Vajpayee”.
Mr Advani, by contrast, is certain to be find himself handicapped by the absence of such a captive support-base. To make up for the deficit caused by this factor, the former deputy prime minister will be looking to his party’s state units to deliver the seats required to make the BJP a crucial player.
To that extent, the next round of electoral battle will be, as a cloumnist described the 2004 verdict, an “aggregate of state elections”. While the BJP will to be looking to leaders such as Mr Narendra Modi in Gujarat, Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan (Madhya Pradesh), Mr B S Yediyurappa (Karnataka), Mr Raman Singh (Chhatisgarh), Ms Vasundhara Raje (Rajasthan) and Mr Sushil Kumar Modi (Bihar) to take it to the threshold, the Congress will be epxecting its chief ministers to brave anti-incumbency.
Download
The Economic Times Business News App for the Latest News in Business, Sensex, Stock Market Updates & More.
The Economic Times Business News App for the Latest News in Business, Sensex, Stock Market Updates & More.
Download
The Economic Times News App for Quarterly Results, Latest News in ITR, Business, Share Market, Live Sensex News & More.
The Economic Times News App for Quarterly Results, Latest News in ITR, Business, Share Market, Live Sensex News & More.
ADVERTISEMENT
