Jayalalithaa's conviction in illegal asset case may alter BJP-AIADMK dynamics

CHENNAI: J Jayalalithaa's conviction may reduce her clout at the Centre even as she waits for her appeals to be heard in higher courts. The AIADMK's hard-earned victory in the Lok Sabha elections had given it an edge in national politics, but Jayalalithaa's conviction in the assets case could take the sheen off the party's spectacular show and alter the BJP-AIADMK dynamic.

For a shell-shocked party, it could take a while to reconcile to the fact that Jayalalithaa will no longer be the face of the government. But, she will continue to hold the reins and influence all major decisions, point out observers. Choosing her replacement would be a crucial task as the party gears up for the assembly elections in 2016. Over the last three years, following the 2011 state election when her party rode to power with more than 150 seats in the 234-strong assembly, Jayalalithaa had consolidated her position.

Despite a precarious power situation, the public goodwill born out of a plethora of welfare schemes helped the party put up an impressive performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

A monolithic organisation, AIADMK has virtually no second rung leader who might challenge Jayalalithaa's authority. Since taking over the party in 1991, the responsibility of keeping it together has been hers. With the legal setback and its impact on her political career, Jayalalithaa has the task of ensuring that the AIADMK remains a key player and a party to reckon with in electoral politics.
Said political commentator and writer Gnani Sankaran: "Jayalalithaa will continue to control her party even if she is in prison. Cadres flooded the streets after the court verdict today. It proves they are behind her." Moreover, the party needed Jayalalithaa to draw the crowds and the votes. "The party is dependent on her and she is dependent on the party. It is a symbiotic relationship," he added.

A scattered opposition in Tamil Nadu is in no position to capitalise on Jayalalithaa's plight.

Still limping in the wake of the 2G spectrum scam and the ensuing electoral reverses, the DMK would find it a huge challenge to win back voter support in just two years for the next assembly election. The other regional parties, the DMDK, PMK and MDMK, still recovering from the blow dealt to them by the AIADMK in the Lok Sabha polls, are no match for the AIADMK, even in its current situation.

While the opposition is still in disarray, it remains to be seen if Jaya can repeat her 2011 performance in 2016. The conviction may earn her public sympathy, which could help the AIADMK as was the case in 1998 when her alliance swept the polls. This was just two years after AIADMK faced a rout during an anticorruption wave and she was jailed for nearly a month.