Jammu & Kashmir's Keran sector witnessing Kargil rerun?

NEW DELHI: The Manmohan Singh government is confronting a serious infiltration bid by Pakistan within days of the PM meeting his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in New York. The highlight of the meeting was maintaining peace on the line of control ( LoC), and DGMOs of both countries were expected to meet to figure out ways of keeping ceasefire violations down.

"We're taking this very seriously," said senior government officials after media reports highlighted a nine-day-long infiltration attempt in the Keran sector in Jammu & Kashmir.

In May 1999, shepherds in Kargil had discovered Pakistani occupation of posts abandoned by the Indian Army in the previous winter. This was the first indication of what would become the most recent full-spectrum conflict with Pakistan. It was the same Sharif, who was in power then. The Kargil intrusion was discovered barely months after the then PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee started a major peace initiative with Pakistan by taking a bus to Lahore.

The then Pakistan army chief, Gen Pervez Musharraf, the architect of Kargil, went on to oust Sharif in a coup in October 1999, to assume the mantle of a military dictator.

The current Pakistani Army chief, Gen Ashfaque Parvez Kayani, is expected to retire finally in November. Indian intelligence officials say one of the reasons for the uptick in infiltration bid on the LoC is due to some amount of jostling for the Army chief's post in Pakistan. The Indian Army has been caught napping this year on numerous occasions — being surprised by intrusions by both Pakistan and China.

The search for Gen Kayani's successor is believed to be on in Pakistan — reports have pinpointed Lt Gen Rashad Mehmud as the likely successor, and the favoured choice of the incumbent. Quite apart from this transition, Pakistan remains in a state of internal conflict with the Taliban taking a heavy toll on Pakistanis, the economy refusing to pick up, and a confrontation with India has been a traditional way to rally national sentiment.

It is not clear whether these are the reasons behind the LoC becoming "live" in recent months, but they have certainly put India-Pak ties on the backburner.