IUML's performance in Malabar becomes make-or-break factor for Congress-led UDF

Kozhikkode/Palakkad: With the UDF-LDF fight in central and south Kerala turning unpredictable due to the ‘spoiler’ BJP-BDJS front, the battle in Muslim-dominated Malabar areas has turned decisive. The Indian Union Muslim League’s ( IUML) performance in its areas of influence has become a make-or-break factor for the Congress-led UDF.

This has made it vital for the CPM-led LDF to cut through IUML influence. Muslims, accounting for about 27% of the electorate, is one of the biggest consolidated vote-bank in the state. The community has a decisive say in around 45/140 seats, spread across Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kasargod and Kannur districts. IUML’s clout comes from the unrelenting backing of Sunni followers owing allegiance to religious leader EK Aboobacker.

After the IUML won over 20 seats last time there was criticism from the Opposition LDF and within the Congress that giving a fifth cabinet berth to the party had upset the ‘delicate social balance’ in power-sharing. The controversial working style of IUML’s education minister who invited charges of ‘communalism’ and ‘corruption’ didn’t help either.

Tapping these controversies in the run-up to the polls, the Left also cultivated IUML rebels and other influential groups and personalities from the Muslim community. There were reports that CPM had even reached a pact with the orthodox Kanthapuram group. IUML faces challenges form radical Muslim outfits such as SDPI and PDP too, who have been working to dent the League’s influence.

CPM-backed independent KT Jaleel told ET: “The days of entire Muslim community supporting IUML are over. The educated youth and middleclass do not approve the elitist politics of IUML.

The community also realises its interests are served better by secular parties such as Left and voting for community-based parties would only help the game-plan of majority community parties such as the BJP.” However, as elections near, there is a growing impression that IUML is regaining lost ground.

PM Narendra Modi’s targeting IUML partner Congress may see the Muslim community unitedly backing the party. “The fierce verbal war between Modi-led BJP and Sonia Gandhi/Oommen Chandy-led UDF have given large section of Muslims the need to reinforce the UDF to check BJP’s advance.

Secondly, many Muslims including intellectuals opposed to the IUML feel it is important for the community to be with a party that will give them direct access to power in the state,” said PK Chekkutty, a seasoned journalist who is a specialist in Muslim politics.