It's do or die battle for Mayawati's BSP in 2017 UP polls

LUCKNOW: This could be Mayawati's most important election. The game is more complicated for Bahujan Samaj Party, which in a “normal“ election ought to have been the favourite or default challenger to wrest power from SP. But the Dalit outfit needs to win over a sizeable chunk of Muslims and most backward communities, a combination that, when added to BSP's core of scheduled castes, has routinely vaulted Mayawati past others to the pole position.

In 2007, BSP romped home with a majority in the House of 403 as upper castes pitched for her, giving vent to their anger against Mulayam Singh Yadav's “lawless“ regime. But in the very next election, SP won a majority too with 224 seats, indicating the bipolarity in UP. This time things look more uncertain as BSP aggressively woos Muslims with Mayawati claiming a vote for the feuding Yadav outfit is a waste.This seemed to be working till an SP-Congress alliance gained traction, potentially reassuring Muslims that faith in “Maulana Mulayam“ is not misplaced.

But BJP poses problems, with upper castes finding a new magnet in Modi. Though reports indicate BSP's Dalit base seems secure, BJP did poach some votes in 2014 and Modi's appeal with a section of backwards is a concern. Clearly BSP has to work harder to be of consequence in the polls, with its aura hit hard by its failure to win a single seat in the Lok Sabha in 2014. A majority or at least the status of single largest party is a must for BSP.


Mayawati has stuck to traditional ploys of stitching alliances with key social blocs, working on doubts of Muslims about SP's winnability while keeping a watchful eye on her Dalit base as “bhaichara sam melans“ woo forwards.

The next big game would be in the way tickets are announced, a strategic instrument in winning over local communities, even if not favourably disposed towards BSP , through representation.