It could be Modi all the way in Gujarat

NEW DELHI: After the conclusion of the election process in Gujarat, pollsters predicted that Narendra Modi would renew the BJP’s lease over Gandhinagar. However, exit polls conducted by various agencies differed on the margin of victory.

While AC Nielsen, which conducted the exit polls for Star News, showed the BJP getting 103 seats in the 182-member assembly, CNN-IBN projected a simple majority for Mr Modi. The channel said the BJP could get 92 to 100 seats. Another news channel, NDTV, put the BJP’s tally in the 90-110 range.

The CNN-IBN said an overwhelming 64% of the voters were satisfied with the Modi government’s performance. Other channels also concurred with the view that his development track record would help the BJP overcome the anti-incumbency disadvantage.

In the event of the exit polls proving correct, Mr Modi, just like the Marxists in West Bengal, would be defying the anti-incumbency factor. The victory against the combined might of the anti-Modi sections and the forces that worked behind it will power Mr Modi into the centre-stage of national politics.

The BJP has been in power in the state since 1995. Barring a brief period when rebellion in its ranks led to the ouster of BJP government, the state has been backing the BJP for the past 12 years. In the event of Mr Modi delivering the state to the BJP yet again, it will come as a big morale-booster for the party’s cadre.

The outcome of the Gujarat election is being keenly watched by the political class as it will have a message for those anchoring campaigns on the development plank. After the defeat of the NDA government as well as the electoral meltdown of the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, there has been serious doubts about making development a poll issue.

Although Mr Modi’s rivals, egged on by arm-chair experts located in the Capital, had tried to shift the focus away from development-related subjects to issues that can sway the minority votes, the chief minister largely concentrated his campaign narrative on his government’s development track record. There were attempts to counter Mr Modi’s claims through press conferences of Union ministers during the final days of campaigning. But if Mr Modi wins the poll, the outcome would be seen as a rebuff to the ‘Gujarat is in peril’ campaign of his rivals.

Failure to unseat Mr Modi in Gujarat, despite launching a high-decibel campaign, will be seen as a big setback for Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul. For the Amethi MP, it will be the second consecutive rebuff in a state election.

Political pundits have already begun blaming Ms Gandhi for squandering an opportunity to defeat the BJP by communalising the electoral campaign. It be recalled that Ms Gandhi had begun the slugfest by calling Mr Modi ‘a merchant of death’.

Coming back to the BJP, a victory for Mr Modi is important for the party. It would send out the signal that the BJP is sustaining the winning habit — it had recently won polls to Uttarakhand and Punjab assemblies — and could charge up the cadre for coming electoral battles.