Is caste calculus driving the BJP to change leaders in some states?

BJP’s decision to replace chief minister Vijay Rupani just a year before the state heads for election seems to be driven by caste calculus. The state elections that were held in 2017 with Rupani as chief minister brought the party’s tally down to two figures. BJP’s vote share was just 7 per cent more than the Congress’s.

The choice of Bhupendra Patel as chief minister could help BJP woo the Patel-Patidar community and consolidate its core voters to recover the losses it suffered in the last elections.



The Bharatiya Janata Party seems to have taken a leaf out of Congress's book while changing its chief ministers.

The caste obstacles
To better understand how the BJP tried to break the caste barrier, let’s look at three states and their leaders along with the outcome of the decision.

In Maharashtra, the Marathas have been ruling the state since quite a while. However, the BJP surprised everyone when they chose Devendra Fadnavis, a Brahmin, as the state’s chief minister.

Jharkhand, since its creation in the year 2000, has only had chief ministers from the tribal community. The BJP again, selected Raghubar Das, from the Vaishya caste (OBC) as the first non-tribal chief minister.

The Jats in Haryana, landowners, have always been at the forefront of the politics in the state. Of course, the BJP surprised everyone by choosing a Khatri, Manohar Lal Khattar as the chief minister of the state.

These experiments didn’t work for the party as it lost power in Maharashtra to rivals after Shiv Sena broke the alliance in 2019. In Haryana, it came back with a reduced majority and lost power in Jharkhand.

A change in plan
The BJP may have factored in the caste arithmetic in its recent choice of chief ministers for Karnataka and Gujarat. Yediyurappa was replaced by another Lingayat, Basavaraj Bommai . The community that has been a traditional vote bank of the BJP.

In Jharkhand, BJP brought back Babulal Marandi, who’s party’s first tribal chief minister of the state, into its fold to resurrect hopes of winning back the state. In Haryana, Khattar’s continuation as chief minister is facing challenges from the farmers' protests.

(With inputs from TOI)